Prediction Markets

Y▲2

✓ 212h

US blocks Iraq dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias

Y↑

15h

Iran Revolutionary Guards warn of ‘silent battlefield’ amid ceasefire doubts

Y↑

2m

White House warns of worsening situation for Iranian regime amid failed talks

Y↑

58m

White House asserts US leverage over Iran amid naval blockade

Y↑

2h

US State Department orders Americans to leave Iran amid rising tensions

N↑

3h

Iran commutes death sentences for eight women protesters amid tensions

N↑

6h

Iran threatens power plant retaliation if US strikes escalate

N↑

✓ 29h

US-Iran talks collapse over uranium, ceasefire deal by April 30 unlikely

N↑

✓ 910h

Iran seizes two vessels, maintains control in Persian Gulf

Y↑

11h

Iran war disrupts global oil supply, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts markets

Y↑

8m

UN backs US-Iran ceasefire extension, market odds drop sharply

N▲3

✓ 21h

Trump expects Iran’s Araghchi to stay in talks amid ceasefire uncertainty

N▲2

1h

US Navy blockade of Strait of Hormuz spikes Brent crude to $101.9

N↑

✓ 22h

Iran accuses US of hypocrisy over Strait of Hormuz blockade

N▲3

✓ 43h

Trump halts execution of eight Iranian women protesters, four released

Y▲1

✓ 53h

Iran negotiator links ceasefire to lifting maritime blockade

Y↑

4h

US-Iran peace talks may resume Friday amid tense ceasefire

Y▲1

✓ 64h

Iran military on high alert as US ceasefire deadline approaches

N↑

✓ 55h

Iran calls US blockade an act of war, impacting ceasefire odds

Y↑

✓ 65h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire, market skeptical of formal end by April 30

N↑

✓ 56h

Iran rejects US talks Friday, ceasefire odds fall

Y▲3

✓ 77h

Trump sets April 30 deadline for Iran to propose negotiation plan

Y▲4

✓ 27h

US and Iran near nuclear framework, ceasefire odds remain low

Y▲4

8h

Iran drone attacks close Strait of Hormuz, doubling Dutch TTF gas prices

Y▲3

8h

Iran calls US naval blockade an “act of war,” demands forceful response

Y↑

9h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifting focus to diplomacy

Y▲3

9h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire as Tehran showcases missiles in parade

N↑

10h

Trump claims Iran “collapsing financially” amid US naval blockade

Y▲3

10h

Iran maps Persian Gulf undersea cables, raising cyber threat concerns

Y▲3

11h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, but formal peace deal remains unlikely

N↑

11h

Iranian President’s praise for Revolutionary Guard dims ceasefire hopes by April 30

Y▲2

✓ 1012h

IRGC gunboat attacks container ship off Oman amid ceasefire extension

Y↑

✓ 613h

UN chief sees Iran–US ceasefire extension as diplomatic opportunity

N↑

14h

Iran ready to negotiate if US lifts naval blockade, market odds drop

Y▲2

✓ 414h

Iran open to talks if US lifts blockade, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely

N↑

✓ 215h

Iran rejects ceasefire extension, US blames Mojtaba Khamenei

Y↑

1h

BlackRock buys $900M in Bitcoin via iShares Bitcoin Trust

N↑

✓ 32h

UK crackdown on illegal crypto trading sites in London

Y↑

4h

$350M in crypto shorts liquidated as Bitcoin rally gains momentum

Y↑

5h

Bitcoin hits $75K as institutional demand, spot ETFs drive rally

N↑

5h

Iran strike disrupts helium supply, impacts tech sector stability

Y↑

✓ 66h

Bitcoin surpasses $79k amid US-Iran-Israel tensions

Y↑

8h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, Bitcoin target $80K odds rise

Y↑

10h

Bitcoin hits $78K after US-Iran ceasefire extension

N↑

11h

Crypto market hit by $415M liquidation wave amid US-Iran tensions

Y↑

11h

Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination boosts Bitcoin sentiment amid crypto holdings disclosure

Y↑

✓ 312h

Russia’s State Duma passes crypto bill, Bitcoin demand may rise

Y↑

4h

US margin debt drops $32B in March, remains 39% higher year-over-year

Y↑

8h

Iran tensions, stock bubble fears drive US recession odds by 2026

N↑

14h

Trump urges Fed nominee Warsh to cut rates despite low market confidence