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✓ 61d Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 61d Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
▼ Next UK prime minister in 2026
6% (was 16%, ▼10¢ in 1d)
⚡ Starmer out timing: 48% FLAT
NO ▲10¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 1d ago
6%
▼10¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 61d 
YES ▲5¢
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
1 article
· 21h ago
37%
▲5¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
21h UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
YES ▲4¢
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 12h ago
7%
▲4¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 912h Solana drops 5%, Bitcoin below $80K amid US-China tensions over Taiwan
NO ▲4¢
Israel airspace closure
1 article
· 1d ago
27%
▼4¢
1d Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
NO ▲3¢
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
· 22h ago
9%
▼3¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 522h US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
NO ▲2¢
Israel ceasefire extension
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼2¢
3h Israel and Lebanon begin peace talks in Washington amid ceasefire uncertainty
NO ▲2¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 12h ago
9%
▼2¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 26% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 11% FLAT
✓ 212h Iran ‘frighteningly close’ to nuclear weapons, warns US energy secretary
NO ▲2¢
Israel strikes in 2026
1 article
· 12h ago
2%
▼2¢
⚡ Israel ceasefire extension 4% FLAT
✓ 312h Hezbollah escalates conflict with three attacks on Israeli forces
NO ▲2¢
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
· 19h ago
4%
▼2¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
19h Iran conflict impacts energy markets as Trump heads to China for talks
YES ▲2¢
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 23h ago
8%
▲2¢
✓ 223h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
YES ▲2¢
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 1d ago
97%
▲2¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 41d Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 21d Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
46m IMF warns Iran conflict threatens global growth, impacts oil supply
1d US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
5 articles
· 3h ago
8%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
3h Iran maintains control over Strait of Hormuz, impacting shipping traffic
✓ 68h Ship seized off UAE coast, heading toward Iran amid regional tensions
21h Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
YES ▲1¢
Xi meets with Iranian officials by may 15
2 articles
· 7h ago
8%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 24% FLAT
7h Iran’s Hormuz closure threatens global trade, raises hunger crisis fears
✓ 108h Trump, Xi agree to keep Strait of Hormuz open amid US-Iran tensions
NO ▲1¢
SpaceX public ticker predictions
1 article
· 7h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ SpaceX IPO predictions 70% FLAT
7h SpaceX IPO anticipation grows with June 2026 target amid market interest
YES ▲1¢
Trump project freedom restart dates
1 article
· 15h ago
8%
▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 47% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
✓ 215h Iran deploys submarines to Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
2 articles
· 15h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
15h US embargo on Hormuz Strait impacts Cuba’s energy supply
20h Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
NO ▲1¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 22h ago
23%
▼1¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 3922h Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
YES ▲1¢
GameStop acquisition of ebay
1 article
· 23h ago
17%
▲1¢
✓ 223h GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 1d ago
55%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
1d Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 1d ago
4%
▼1¢
1d Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit may 2024
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 64% FLAT
22m 30 China-linked vessels transit Strait of Hormuz under Iranian supervision
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
· 2h ago
38%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 40% FLAT
2h Saudi Arabia, UAE conduct secret attacks in Iran, escalating regional tensions
✓ 28h Israel strikes Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
22h Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 8h ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump project freedom restart dates 2% FLAT
8h Iran restores missile capabilities, raising US military escalation risks
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
2 articles
· 10h ago
38%
▼0¢
✓ 610h Wes Streeting prepares to challenge Keir Starmer amid Labour Party turmoil
✓ 61d Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 21h ago
17%
▼0¢
✓ 821h Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
· 22h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
✓ 422h Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 31d Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely YES
Trump's xi summit attendance
1 article
· 18h ago
8%
✓ 918h Melania Trump confirmed at Trump-Xi summit in China
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
39%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump project freedom restart dates 3% FLAT
1h US Centcom redirects 70 vessels amid Hormuz blockade enforcement
✓ 71d CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 11h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
✓ 311h Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $635M amid Middle East tensions
Likely NO
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
2 articles
· 1d ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 31d Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 21d Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 1d ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 21d Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 41d Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 1d ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 21d Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 1d ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
1d Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic