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12m South Korea investigates vessel fire amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
12m South Korea investigates vessel fire amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
▲ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
28% (was 27%, ▲1¢ in 12m)
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
28%
▲1¢
12m 1h US-Iran tensions rise as Strait of Hormuz blockade remains in place
YES ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
2 articles
Developing
26%
▲1¢
✓ 223m US strikes Iranian vessels, escalating tensions and airspace closure risk
33m Explosions in Iran heighten tensions, potential airspace closure looms
YES ▲1¢
Iran military action against neighbors
2 articles
Developing
26%
▲1¢
29m Iran urges Gulf states to reject foreign military reliance amid tensions
2h Iran targets UAE with missile strikes amid regional tensions
YES ▲1¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
Developing
28%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 27% FLAT
30m Trump launches ‘Project Freedom’ amid Iranian strikes on UAE port
1h Renewed attacks in Hormuz suggest ongoing US-Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
99.5%
▲1¢
⚡ US GDP growth Q1 2026 100% FLAT
1h US economic indicators hit 0.84, matching 2008 crisis low
3h Iran conflict drives US gasoline prices to 4-year high, impacting restaurants
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
Developing
28%
▲1¢
1h US military escorts Maersk ship through Hormuz, easing passage tensions
YES ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
28%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 27% FLAT
1h Trump signals limited escalation with Iran amid Hormuz tensions
YES ▲1¢
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
· 2h ago
28%
▲1¢
2h IRGC warns US against Hormuz intervention amid rising invasion risk
YES ▲1¢
Fed decision june and july
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▲1¢
2h IMF warns prolonged Middle East conflict could spike oil prices, impact inflation
YES ▲1¢
Fed chair confirmation predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▲1¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 2% FLAT
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 96% FLAT
3h Kevin Warsh expected to be confirmed as Fed Chair by mid-May
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by december 2026 1% FLAT
7m Meta secures $13B financing for Texas AI data center with Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan
2h Meta secures $13B financing for Texas AI data center despite debt concerns
2h Meta and Google revenue growth boosts confidence in stock targets for April 2026
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
Developing
14%
▼0¢
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 14% FLAT
17m Netanyahu pressured Trump on Iran military action, claims Tucker Carlson
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
19m USS Truxtun, USS Mason attacked by Iran in Hormuz, escalating tensions
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
26m Philippine inflation amid Middle East tensions, impacting global markets
Likely NO
Trump speaking engagements in may
1 article
Developing
15%
▼0¢
40m Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
Developing
14%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 8% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
49m IDF warns of forceful removal of Iran’s enriched uranium amid stalled talks
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
✓ 258m US intelligence reports limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program
✓ 33h US intelligence reports limited damage to Iran’s nuclear program
Likely NO
Ethereum price on may 5
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
1h Iranian drone attacks on UAE pressure US bond market, yields surge
2h Global inflation rise may impact Ethereum prices, Fed rate cuts unlikely
3h US-Iran tensions, oil price surge impact S&P 500, Ethereum markets
Likely NO
Ethereum price in april
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Bitcoin surpasses $80k amid low on-chain activity, up 22% in 5 weeks
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
1h Oil prices surge as US-Israel-Iran tensions disrupt supply routes
4h Diamondback boosts shale output amid Iran conflict, oil prices surge to $120
Likely NO
UAE and qatar diplomatic relations in 2026
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
1h Qatar condemns Iran attack on UAE, strengthens Gulf unity
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Spirit Airlines shuts down, JetBlue offers rescue fares after bailout denial
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
✓ 31h Iran tensions rise as attacks hit UAE, ships; oil prices expected to climb
✓ 21h US deploys F-16s in Project Freedom amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 4
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
1h European stock futures fall amid US trade tensions and Middle East conflicts
✓ 32h Explosion in Strait of Hormuz impacts S&P 500, curbs optimism on earnings
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h Trump calls Xi meeting important, highlights US AI leadership
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 42h Trump administration mulls AI model review order, impacting Anthropic timeline
4h White House mulls AI model vetting amid US-China tech tensions
Likely NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation timeline
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h US indicts Sinaloa governor, raising stakes for anti-cartel operations
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
2h Fed rate hike probability rises amid inflation, Iran tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
2h VP Vance predicts 100M Americans will soon own Bitcoin, boosting adoption
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ S&P 500 movement on may 4 0% FLAT
2h Iran tensions rise as US, Israeli airstrikes hit military targets
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
94%
▼0¢
3h MegaETH DEX volume hits $130M as MEGA token debuts
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 3h ago
11%
▼0¢
3h Trump dissatisfied with Iran’s peace deal response, no meeting scheduled
Likely NO
Trump visit to China
1 article
· 3h ago
91%
▼0¢
3h Trump imposes new tariffs after Supreme Court ruling on $159B repayment
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
3h Senator Lummis urges swift passage of CLARITY Act to boost Bitcoin regulation
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
2 articles
Developing
100%
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
just now Iran missile strikes UAE targets amid US-Iran conflict tensions
6m Middle East conflict boosts Bitcoin demand as safe-haven asset