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16m Iran tensions threaten oil transit, WTI crude may hit $150 in May
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
16m Iran tensions threaten oil transit, WTI crude may hit $150 in May
▼ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2% (was 3%, ▼1¢ in 16m)
⚡ Fed decision june and july: 2% FLAT
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
Developing
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 2% FLAT
16m 
NO ▲1¢
Netanyahu out
1 article
Developing
13%
▼1¢
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 14% FLAT
1h Netanyahu pressured Trump on Iran military action, claims Tucker Carlson
YES ▲1¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
Developing
28%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 27% FLAT
1h Trump launches ‘Project Freedom’ amid Iranian strikes on UAE port
2h Renewed attacks in Hormuz suggest ongoing US-Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
99.5%
▲1¢
⚡ US GDP growth Q1 2026 100% FLAT
2h US economic indicators hit 0.84, matching 2008 crisis low
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 2h ago
28%
▲1¢
2h US military escorts Maersk ship through Hormuz, easing passage tensions
YES ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
28%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 27% FLAT
2h Trump signals limited escalation with Iran amid Hormuz tensions
YES ▲1¢
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
· 3h ago
28%
▲1¢
3h IRGC warns US against Hormuz intervention amid rising invasion risk
Likely NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation timeline
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
7m Mexico deploys top security officials to Sinaloa amid cartel violence escalation
3h US indicts Sinaloa governor, raising stakes for anti-cartel operations
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
2 articles
Developing
25%
▼0¢
✓ 41h US strikes Iranian vessels, escalating tensions and airspace closure risk
1h Explosions in Iran heighten tensions, potential airspace closure looms
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
1h Philippine inflation amid Middle East tensions, impacting global markets
Likely NO
Trump speaking engagements in may
1 article
Developing
15%
▼0¢
1h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
Developing
9%
just now Hezbollah rejects talks as tensions rise, impacting Israeli withdrawal odds
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
18m Crypto stocks rally as Clarity Act advances in US Senate
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
23m White House considers pre-release reviews for Anthropic’s AI model Mythos
✓ 43h Trump administration mulls AI model review order, impacting Anthropic timeline
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
✓ 326m US maintains naval blockade against Iran, impacting Hormuz traffic normalization
54m US-flagged ship transits Hormuz with military escort amid tensions
1h South Korea investigates vessel fire amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
Developing
25%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 24% FLAT
33m Iran denies role as Fujairah oil facilities attacked amid rising tensions
1h Iran urges Gulf states to reject foreign military reliance amid tensions
3h Iran targets UAE with missile strikes amid regional tensions
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
99.7%
▼0¢
43m Solana faces ecosystem disruptions despite $750M USDC minting and Visa ties
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
56m Iran missile strikes UAE targets amid US-Iran conflict tensions
1h Middle East conflict boosts Bitcoin demand as safe-haven asset
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by december 2026 1% FLAT
1h Meta secures $13B financing for Texas AI data center with Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan
3h Meta secures $13B financing for Texas AI data center despite debt concerns
3h Meta and Google revenue growth boosts confidence in stock targets for April 2026
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
1h USS Truxtun, USS Mason attacked by Iran in Hormuz, escalating tensions
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
Developing
14%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 8% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
1h IDF warns of forceful removal of Iran’s enriched uranium amid stalled talks
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
✓ 21h US intelligence reports limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program
Likely NO
Ethereum price on may 5
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 7 100% FLAT
2h Iranian drone attacks on UAE pressure US bond market, yields surge
3h Global inflation rise may impact Ethereum prices, Fed rate cuts unlikely
Likely NO
Ethereum price in april
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Bitcoin surpasses $80k amid low on-chain activity, up 22% in 5 weeks
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
2h Oil prices surge as US-Israel-Iran tensions disrupt supply routes
Likely NO
UAE and qatar diplomatic relations in 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
2h Qatar condemns Iran attack on UAE, strengthens Gulf unity
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Spirit Airlines shuts down, JetBlue offers rescue fares after bailout denial
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
2 articles
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
✓ 32h Iran tensions rise as attacks hit UAE, ships; oil prices expected to climb
✓ 22h US deploys F-16s in Project Freedom amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on may 4
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 5 100% FLAT
2h European stock futures fall amid US trade tensions and Middle East conflicts
✓ 33h Explosion in Strait of Hormuz impacts S&P 500, curbs optimism on earnings
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
2h Trump calls Xi meeting important, highlights US AI leadership
Likely NO
The devil wears prada 2 opening weekend box office
1 article
Developing
0%
51m “The Devil Wears Prada 2” earns $233M globally in opening weekend
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
3h Fed rate hike probability rises amid inflation, Iran tensions
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
3h IMF warns prolonged Middle East conflict could spike oil prices, impact inflation
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
3h VP Vance predicts 100M Americans will soon own Bitcoin, boosting adoption
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ S&P 500 movement on may 4 0% FLAT
3h Iran tensions rise as US, Israeli airstrikes hit military targets