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✓ 316h Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $635M amid Middle East tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 316h Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $635M amid Middle East tensions
▲ Bitcoin price targets
100% (was 6%, ▲94¢ in 16h)
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14: 0% FLAT
YES ▲94¢
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 16h ago
100%
▲94¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
✓ 316h 
NO ▲11¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 1d ago
5%
▼11¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 61d Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
NO ▲8¢
Israel strikes in 2026
1 article
· 18h ago
53%
▼8¢
⚡ Israel ceasefire extension 4% FLAT
✓ 318h Hezbollah escalates conflict with three attacks on Israeli forces
YES ▲6¢
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
2 articles
· 1d ago
100%
▲6¢
✓ 31d Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 21d Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
NO ▲4¢
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 16h ago
34%
▼4¢
✓ 816h Wes Streeting prepares to challenge Keir Starmer amid Labour Party turmoil
NO ▲4¢
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
· 1d ago
8%
▼4¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 51d US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
NO ▲3¢
SpaceX public ticker predictions
1 article
· 13h ago
59%
▼3¢
⚡ SpaceX IPO predictions 70% FLAT
13h SpaceX IPO anticipation grows with June 2026 target amid market interest
YES ▲3¢
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 18h ago
6%
▲3¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 1018h Solana drops 5%, Bitcoin below $80K amid US-China tensions over Taiwan
NO ▲3¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 18h ago
8%
▼3¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 26% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 11% FLAT
✓ 218h Iran ‘frighteningly close’ to nuclear weapons, warns US energy secretary
NO ▲2¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
4 articles
· 8h ago
7%
▼2¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
8h Iran maintains control over Strait of Hormuz, impacting shipping traffic
✓ 714h Ship seized off UAE coast, heading toward Iran amid regional tensions
1d Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
YES ▲2¢
Israel ceasefire extension
1 article
· 9h ago
53%
▲2¢
✓ 29h Israel and Lebanon begin peace talks in Washington amid ceasefire uncertainty
NO ▲2¢
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
· 1d ago
4%
▼2¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
1d Iran conflict impacts energy markets as Trump heads to China for talks
YES ▲2¢
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 1d ago
8%
▲2¢
✓ 21d S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
NO ▲1¢
Xi meets with Iranian officials by may 15
3 articles
· 2h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
2h Chinese vessels exit Strait of Hormuz amid Beijing’s opposition to Iranian tolls
13h Iran’s Hormuz closure threatens global trade, raises hunger crisis fears
✓ 1013h Trump, Xi agree to keep Strait of Hormuz open amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Clarity act signed into law in 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
70%
▲1¢
✓ 23h Senate panel advances Clarity Act, boosting crypto regulation prospects
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
✓ 26h IMF warns Iran conflict threatens global growth, impacts oil supply
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 6h ago
40%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump project freedom restart dates 3% FLAT
6h US Centcom redirects 70 vessels amid Hormuz blockade enforcement
✓ 71d CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
NO ▲1¢
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
· 8h ago
37%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 40% FLAT
✓ 58h Saudi Arabia, UAE conduct secret attacks in Iran, escalating regional tensions
✓ 214h Israel strikes Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
1d Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
2 articles
· 20h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
✓ 220h US embargo on Hormuz Strait impacts Cuba’s energy supply
1d Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
NO ▲1¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 1d ago
16%
▼1¢
✓ 81d Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
YES ▲1¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 1d ago
99.8%
▲1¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 391d Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 1d ago
55%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
1d Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 1d ago
4%
▼1¢
1d Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit may 2024
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 68% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
37m Iran imposes $1M toll on Strait of Hormuz transits, impacting global oil flow
✓ 35h 30 China-linked vessels transit Strait of Hormuz under Iranian supervision
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
1 article
· 2h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US military action in 2026 31% FLAT
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 44% FLAT
2h CENTCOM signals readiness as US-Iran nuclear deal prospects dim
Likely NO
Total crypto hack value in 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h North Korean hackers escalate crypto theft, causing $2B losses in 2025
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership status by end of 2026 3% FLAT
3h Pezeshkian emphasizes unity as Iran consolidates post-Khamenei transition
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
· 3h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Israeli parliament dissolution 48% FLAT
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
3h Netanyahu coalition fast-tracks laws as Knesset dissolution looms
✓ 41d Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 13h ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump project freedom restart dates 2% FLAT
13h Iran restores missile capabilities, raising US military escalation risks
Likely NO
Trump project freedom restart dates
1 article
· 20h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 47% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
✓ 220h Iran deploys submarines to Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
1 article
· 1d ago
32%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
1d UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
Likely NO
GameStop acquisition of ebay
1 article
· 1d ago
16%
▼0¢
✓ 21d GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 1d ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 21d Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 41d Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely YES
Trump's xi summit attendance
1 article
· 23h ago
8%
✓ 923h Melania Trump confirmed at Trump-Xi summit in China
Likely NO
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 1d ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 41d Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 21d Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls