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6h Somali terror groups escalate piracy in Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising security risks
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
6h Somali terror groups escalate piracy in Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising security risks
▲ Bab el-mandeb strait closure
32% (was 27%, ▲5¢ in 6h)
YES ▲3¢
XRP price predictions for may
1 article
· 6h ago
32%
▲3¢
⚡ XRP price predictions for may 5 100% FLAT
6h XRP sentiment hits two-year high with Rakuten Wallet integration
YES ▲2¢
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
Developing
56%
▲2¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 62% FLAT
28m Samsung hits $1T market cap amid AI chip demand surge
NO ▲1¢
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼1¢
✓ 251m Brent oil drops 2% as Trump signals progress with Iran
1h Trump dismisses gas price concerns amid Iran conflict escalation
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
3 articles
Developing
9%
▼1¢
1h Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz closure impact oil prices
✓ 92h WTI oil drops 2.5% as Trump pauses Project Freedom, impacting price forecasts
7h Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal, maintains economic pressure
YES ▲1¢
Russia capture kostyantynivka
2 articles
Developing
78%
▲1¢
1h Ukraine boosts defenses with Palantir AI amid Russian conflict
6h Russian troop desertions strain efforts to capture Kostyantynivka
YES ▲1¢
Brazil presidential election 2026
1 article
Developing
5%
▲1¢
1h Lula to discuss anti-cartel cooperation with Trump amid US-Brazil talks
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 2h ago
32%
▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 66% FLAT
2h Iranian missile reportedly strikes cargo vessel in Strait of Hormuz
2h Trump announces pause in Project Freedom amid Hormuz blockade tensions
NO ▲1¢
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 6h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 26% FLAT
6h Iran asserts permanent control over Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
3 articles
Developing
7%
▼0¢
6m Explosions reported in Iran’s Hormozgan province amid US-Iran tensions
5h Iran missile strikes UAE amid rising tensions in Strait of Hormuz
✓ 26h Trump declares Iran war ‘terminated’ amid airspace closure speculation
Likely NO
Balance of power in 2026 midterms
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
8m VP Vance campaigns in Iowa as GOP fears grow for 2026 midterms
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
11m Hezbollah’s unjammable drones escalate Israel-Lebanon tensions, impact withdrawal odds
✓ 32h Iran labels UAE ‘Israeli proxy,’ warns of military action in Gulf region
✓ 24h Iran denies involvement in UAE attack amid regional tensions
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
18m Middle East tensions, oil prices complicate Fed rate cut outlook for 2026
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 32% FLAT
23m US pauses naval escorts in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran talks
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
36m Anthropic shifts focus to finance amid US government tensions
3h US gains pre-release access to top AI models from Alphabet, Microsoft, xAI
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
50m Russian strikes escalate, dimming 2026 Ukraine ceasefire hopes
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
11%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran shipping agreement 11% FLAT
1h Iran faces international disapproval over Strait of Hormuz actions
6h Iran to dismantle US exploitation of Hormuz, says Khamenei
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Strategy’s potential Bitcoin sale may impact $115K target in May
Likely NO
ChatGPT app store ranking
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h ChatGPT tops US Apple Store as GPT-5.5 Instant boosts downloads
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
3 articles
Developing
7%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Missile strike on cargo ship near Dubai raises Gulf tensions
3h Iran introduces permit system for Strait of Hormuz vessel transits
✓ 23h US military escorts US ships through Strait of Hormuz amid tensions
Likely NO
Billions FDV after launch
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Jump Crypto’s Firedancer upgrade boosts Solana network performance
Likely NO
Google stock price predictions
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h US-Iran tensions ease, Bitcoin price above $66K likely by May 6
5h Google Cloud, Solana launch pay-as-you-go AI system using stablecoins
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
✓ 132h Trump suspends Hormuz operation amid Iran deal progress
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Anchorage Digital, J.P. Morgan partner on Solana stablecoin reserves
4h Securitize, Jump, Jupiter launch tokenized equities on Solana blockchain
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h API reports significant crude draw amid Hormuz tensions, oil eyes $90 by June
5h Nigeria crude supply shortfall may push oil prices to $90 by June
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
· 4h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
4h US shifts to clear crypto regulations, boosting Bitcoin investor confidence
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 4h ago
93%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 92% FLAT
4h Beijing blocks Meta’s $2B Manus deal amid US-China tensions
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 4h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 8% FLAT
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
4h US-Iran talks focus on uranium enrichment amid diplomatic efforts
✓ 28h Trump comments dampen US-Iran diplomatic meeting prospects
Likely NO
Trump conversations in april
1 article
· 7h ago
100%
▼0¢
7h US forces capture Nicolás Maduro, confirming removal before 2027
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 7h ago
13%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT
7h Israel ramps up military operations in Lebanon amid ceasefire violations
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
· 7h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
✓ 27h Trump hints at US red lines amid rising Iran tensions
Likely NO
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
· 8h ago
3%
▼0¢
✓ 28h Trump comments on Hormuz boost US oil demand amid geopolitical tensions