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7h Somali terror groups escalate piracy in Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising security risks
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
7h Somali terror groups escalate piracy in Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising security risks
▲ Bab el-mandeb strait closure
35% (was 27%, ▲8¢ in 7h)
YES ▲3¢
XRP price predictions for may
1 article
· 7h ago
32%
▲3¢
⚡ XRP price predictions for may 5 100% FLAT
7h XRP sentiment hits two-year high with Rakuten Wallet integration
NO ▲2¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
5 articles
Developing
66%
▼2¢
18m Neom port promotion signals shift from Strait of Hormuz amid regional tensions
1h Iran introduces permit system for Strait of Hormuz vessel transit amid tensions
✓ 22h Missile strike on cargo ship near Dubai raises Gulf tensions
YES ▲2¢
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
Developing
56%
▲2¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 62% FLAT
✓ 31h Samsung hits $1T market cap amid AI chip demand surge
NO ▲1¢
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
2 articles
· 2h ago
9%
▼1¢
✓ 22h Brent oil drops 2% as Trump signals progress with Iran
2h Trump dismisses gas price concerns amid Iran conflict escalation
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
9%
▼1¢
2h Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz closure impact oil prices
✓ 93h WTI oil drops 2.5% as Trump pauses Project Freedom, impacting price forecasts
YES ▲1¢
Russia capture kostyantynivka
2 articles
· 2h ago
78%
▲1¢
2h Ukraine boosts defenses with Palantir AI amid Russian conflict
7h Russian troop desertions strain efforts to capture Kostyantynivka
YES ▲1¢
Brazil presidential election 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
5%
▲1¢
2h Lula to discuss anti-cartel cooperation with Trump amid US-Brazil talks
NO ▲1¢
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 7h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 26% FLAT
7h Iran asserts permanent control over Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 16% FLAT
10m China defies US sanctions on Iranian oil ahead of Trump’s Beijing visit
5h Beijing blocks Meta’s $2B Manus deal amid US-China tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 6 0% FLAT
21m Institutions drive Bitcoin past $80K, targeting $96K by June
✓ 21h US-Iran deal hopes boost Bitcoin sentiment, oil market cautious
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
24m Trump announces progress in US-Iran talks, pauses Project Freedom
✓ 133h Trump suspends Hormuz operation amid Iran deal progress
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 3% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 61% FLAT
✓ 256m Trump pauses Project Freedom amid Hormuz blockade negotiations
3h Iranian missile reportedly strikes cargo vessel in Strait of Hormuz
3h Trump announces pause in Project Freedom amid Hormuz blockade tensions
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
3 articles
Developing
7%
▼0¢
1h Explosions reported in Iran’s Hormozgan province amid US-Iran tensions
6h Iran missile strikes UAE amid rising tensions in Strait of Hormuz
✓ 27h Trump declares Iran war ‘terminated’ amid airspace closure speculation
Likely NO
Balance of power in 2026 midterms
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h VP Vance campaigns in Iowa as GOP fears grow for 2026 midterms
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Hezbollah’s unjammable drones escalate Israel-Lebanon tensions, impact withdrawal odds
✓ 33h Iran labels UAE ‘Israeli proxy,’ warns of military action in Gulf region
✓ 25h Iran denies involvement in UAE attack amid regional tensions
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
1h Middle East tensions, oil prices complicate Fed rate cut outlook for 2026
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 32% FLAT
✓ 41h US pauses naval escorts in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran talks
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Anthropic shifts focus to finance amid US government tensions
4h US gains pre-release access to top AI models from Alphabet, Microsoft, xAI
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Russian strikes escalate, dimming 2026 Ukraine ceasefire hopes
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 2h ago
11%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran shipping agreement 11% FLAT
2h Iran faces international disapproval over Strait of Hormuz actions
7h Iran to dismantle US exploitation of Hormuz, says Khamenei
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Strategy’s potential Bitcoin sale may impact $115K target in May
Likely NO
ChatGPT app store ranking
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h ChatGPT tops US Apple Store as GPT-5.5 Instant boosts downloads
Likely NO
Billions FDV after launch
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Jump Crypto’s Firedancer upgrade boosts Solana network performance
Likely NO
Google stock price predictions
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h US-Iran tensions ease, Bitcoin price above $66K likely by May 6
6h Google Cloud, Solana launch pay-as-you-go AI system using stablecoins
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Anchorage Digital, J.P. Morgan partner on Solana stablecoin reserves
6h Securitize, Jump, Jupiter launch tokenized equities on Solana blockchain
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h API reports significant crude draw amid Hormuz tensions, oil eyes $90 by June
6h Nigeria crude supply shortfall may push oil prices to $90 by June
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
5h US shifts to clear crypto regulations, boosting Bitcoin investor confidence
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 5h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 8% FLAT
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
5h US-Iran talks focus on uranium enrichment amid diplomatic efforts