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✓ 33h Samsung hits $1T market cap amid AI chip demand surge
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 33h Samsung hits $1T market cap amid AI chip demand surge
▼ SpaceX IPO predictions
52% (was 54%, ▼2¢ in 3h)
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions: 62% FLAT
NO ▲2¢
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
52%
▼2¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 62% FLAT
✓ 33h 
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
5 articles
Developing
67%
▼1¢
1h Neom port promotion signals shift from Strait of Hormuz amid regional tensions
2h Iran introduces permit system for Strait of Hormuz vessel transit amid tensions
✓ 24h Missile strike on cargo ship near Dubai raises Gulf tensions
NO ▲1¢
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
2 articles
· 3h ago
9%
▼1¢
✓ 23h Brent oil drops 2% as Trump signals progress with Iran
4h Trump dismisses gas price concerns amid Iran conflict escalation
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
9%
▼1¢
3h Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz closure impact oil prices
✓ 94h WTI oil drops 2.5% as Trump pauses Project Freedom, impacting price forecasts
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
3 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
8m Trump, Xi to discuss Taiwan amid China’s military drills near island
1h China defies US sanctions on Iranian oil ahead of Trump’s Beijing visit
6h Beijing blocks Meta’s $2B Manus deal amid US-China tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Iran strikes UAE as Ukraine expands Gulf security ties
✓ 33h Russian strikes escalate, dimming 2026 Ukraine ceasefire hopes
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 7
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 6 0% FLAT
1h Institutions drive Bitcoin past $80K, targeting $96K by June
✓ 32h US-Iran deal hopes boost Bitcoin sentiment, oil market cautious
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
✓ 41h Trump announces progress in US-Iran talks, pauses Project Freedom
✓ 134h Trump suspends Hormuz operation amid Iran deal progress
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 3% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 61% FLAT
✓ 32h Trump pauses Project Freedom amid Hormuz blockade negotiations
4h Iranian missile reportedly strikes cargo vessel in Strait of Hormuz
4h Trump announces pause in Project Freedom amid Hormuz blockade tensions
Likely YES
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
Developing
100%
⚡ Iran airspace closure 6% FLAT
2m Iran continues attacks despite ceasefire, UAE reports over 500 missile strikes
2h Hezbollah’s unjammable drones escalate Israel-Lebanon tensions, impact withdrawal odds
✓ 35h Iran labels UAE ‘Israeli proxy,’ warns of military action in Gulf region
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
10m Iran, China discuss ceasefire and Hormuz reopening amid US tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
Developing
29%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 6 0% FLAT
19m Strategy reports wider loss amid Bitcoin price slump, geopolitical tensions
✓ 23h Strategy’s potential Bitcoin sale may impact $115K target in May
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
2 articles
Developing
7%
▼0¢
26m USAF reduces presence in Europe, West Asia amid Iran tensions
2h Explosions reported in Iran’s Hormozgan province amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Billions FDV after launch
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
37m Prophet debuts AI-powered prediction market with $10K capital tranche
4h Jump Crypto’s Firedancer upgrade boosts Solana network performance
Likely NO
MicroStrategy Bitcoin sales timeline
1 article
Developing
29%
▼0¢
✓ 243m Strategy may sell Bitcoin to cover STRC dividends, says Michael Saylor
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
Developing
12%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 12% FLAT
46m Iran rejects US demands amid ongoing tensions and economic blockade
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4-10
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
47m BlackRock clients acquire $251M in Bitcoin amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
1h Strategy reports $12.5B net loss, impacting Bitcoin sentiment for May 2026
Likely NO
Balance of power in 2026 midterms
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h VP Vance campaigns in Iowa as GOP fears grow for 2026 midterms
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
2h Middle East tensions, oil prices complicate Fed rate cut outlook for 2026
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 32% FLAT
✓ 52h US pauses naval escorts in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran talks
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Anthropic shifts focus to finance amid US government tensions
5h US gains pre-release access to top AI models from Alphabet, Microsoft, xAI
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 3h ago
11%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran shipping agreement 11% FLAT
3h Iran faces international disapproval over Strait of Hormuz actions
Likely NO
Russia capture kostyantynivka
1 article
· 3h ago
77%
▼0¢
3h Ukraine boosts defenses with Palantir AI amid Russian conflict
Likely NO
ChatGPT app store ranking
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h ChatGPT tops US Apple Store as GPT-5.5 Instant boosts downloads
Likely NO
Brazil presidential election 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
4h Lula to discuss anti-cartel cooperation with Trump amid US-Brazil talks
Likely NO
Google stock price predictions
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h US-Iran tensions ease, Bitcoin price above $66K likely by May 6
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Anchorage Digital, J.P. Morgan partner on Solana stablecoin reserves
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
6h API reports significant crude draw amid Hormuz tensions, oil eyes $90 by June
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
· 6h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 6 100% FLAT
6h US shifts to clear crypto regulations, boosting Bitcoin investor confidence