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2h Iran seizes ships, US intercepts missiles as tensions rise
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
2h Iran seizes ships, US intercepts missiles as tensions rise
▼ US-Iran ceasefire end
8% (was 10%, ▼2¢ in 2h)
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran: 3% FLAT
NO ▲2¢
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
· 2h ago
8%
▼2¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 3% FLAT
2h 
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
1 article
Developing
12%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 11% FLAT
34m Iran blames US, Israel for conflict, complicating nuclear deal talks
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal
1 article
Developing
75%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 74% FLAT
1h US naval blockade disrupts Iranian oil exports to China
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
Developing
75%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran diplomatic meetings 74% FLAT
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 74% FLAT
✓ 21h Pakistan hopeful for US-Iran talks despite ship seizures in Hormuz Strait
YES ▲1¢
Meetings with Iran by april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▲1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 1% FLAT
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 3% FLAT
2h Iran says Strait of Hormuz reopening tied to US ceasefire compliance
Likely NO
Warships through the strait of hormuz
2 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Countries sending warships through hormuz 3% FLAT
2m Iran’s IRGC seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz after Trump extends ceasefire
✓ 248m UK, France lead 30-nation coalition to reopen Strait of Hormuz with ceasefire
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
28m Germany to build Europe’s strongest military by 2039 with 460,000 troops
Likely NO
Ethereum price in april
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in 2026 4% FLAT
33m Ethereum spot ETF inflows hit $96.4M amid US-Iran diplomatic progress
Likely NO
US crude oil reserves by may 1
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
✓ 335m IEA warns of historic energy security threat amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
39m Ceasefire violation in southern Lebanon as target intercepted over IDF troops
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit april
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
40m Iran calls US capture of tanker ‘piracy’, threatens retaliation
2h CENTCOM orders blockade against Iran, impacting Hormuz shipping routes
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
⚡ Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
1m France mourns soldiers killed in Hezbollah attack in Lebanon
1h Lebanese president condemns journalist’s death in Israeli strike
Likely NO
MegaETH market cap after launch
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against countries 100% FLAT
5m Qatar Airways resumes flights to Dubai, Sharjah, Damascus amid Iran tensions easing
Likely NO
ECB interest rate predictions for april 2026
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates predictions for april 2026 0% FLAT
7m Eurozone PMI falls to 48.6, raising potential for ECB rate cut
Likely NO
ECB interest rates predictions for april 2026
4 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
10m Euro area business activity contracts, services sector downturn blamed
35m Germany’s April PMI drops to 48.3, signals private sector contraction
2h Iran conflict complicates ECB rate decision ahead of April meeting
Likely NO
Ships transit the strait of hormuz by april
3 articles
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Warships through the strait of hormuz 3% FLAT
11m Pentagon says clearing Hormuz mines may take six months, impacting oil prices
31m US-Israel strikes impact Hormuz shipping, market odds drop sharply
2h Pentagon: Mine clearance in Strait of Hormuz could take six months after conflict
Likely NO
Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april
1 article
Developing
14%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 0% FLAT
⚡ Who will meet with Iran 3% FLAT
16m Trump’s actions spark fears of global arms race, says Major General Manner
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
75%
▼0¢
18m US seizes ships aiding Iran as Hormuz blockade expands
✓ 32h Iran seizes ships in Hormuz Strait after US halts attacks
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 38% FLAT
✓ 219m Khamenei opposes extending US talks, raising conflict risk
✓ 22h Goldman Sachs favors energy stocks as Iran oil supply concerns grow
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions for june 2023
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Bank of japan decision in april 2026 0% FLAT
20m Honda to exit South Korea auto market by year-end amid market shifts
Likely NO
Trump's end of military operations against Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
✓ 22h Hegseth fires Navy Secretary Phelan amid Pentagon leadership shake-up
Likely NO
Bitcoin price hit in april
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
7m Sainsbury’s, WHSmith warn Middle East tensions may impact profits
2h Iran conflict impacts Bitcoin dip market amid rising oil prices
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap
1 article
Developing
91%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in june 90% FLAT
⚡ Largest company by end of june 90% FLAT
23m Thinking Machines Lab inks multibillion-dollar AI deal with Google Cloud, Nvidia chips
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in april 2026
3 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
1h WTI Crude Oil unlikely to hit $160 by April amid US-Iran tensions
✓ 21h Global stocks rally despite Iran conflict; WTI crude odds remain low
2h Trump extends Iran ceasefire, WTI crude oil $160 April target dims
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions in april
1 article
Developing
19%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions april 20-26 1% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin all time high by date 3% FLAT
1h Crypto Fear & Greed Index sees largest daily rise in three months
Likely NO
Israel suspension of lebanon offensive
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
1h Alma Center opposes Lebanon ceasefire, questions market assumptions
Likely NO
Fed decisions from march to june
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision in june 2026 5% FLAT
1h Philippine central bank raises interest rate for first time in over two years
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 23 100% FLAT
1h BlackRock buys $246M in Bitcoin, total reaches $1.8B in 12 days
Likely NO
Silver price predictions for june
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h Strait of Hormuz blockade pushes silver past $100, gold over $5,000
Likely NO
Next leader out of power
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
2h Hungary’s PM-elect vows to arrest Netanyahu under ICC warrant
Likely NO
Iran military action against countries
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h US and Israeli strikes damage Iran’s industrial sector, including Mobarakeh Steel
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap on april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
99%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in june 90% FLAT
⚡ Richest person on december 31, 2026 1% FLAT
✓ 22h Tesla profit jump fails to impact Nvidia’s top market cap odds
Likely NO
Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
2h Netanyahu focuses on military strategy in Lebanon amid diplomatic odds tension
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Countries sending warships through hormuz 3% FLAT
2h Iran seizes two ships in Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil flow
Likely NO
Trump's naming decisions
1 article
Developing
3%
1h Trump replaces Navy Secretary Phelan amid Hormuz blockade tensions
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
2h US informs Israel ceasefire with Iran to end Sunday
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran regime fall 1% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 38% FLAT
3h Iran halts executions of eight women after Trump appeal