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1h IRGC attacks ships in Strait of Hormuz, complicates US-Iran peace efforts
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
1h IRGC attacks ships in Strait of Hormuz, complicates US-Iran peace efforts
▼ US-Iran permanent peace deal
13% (was 14%, ▼1¢ in 1h)
⚡ Iran peace deals: 0% FLAT
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
Developing
13%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran peace deals 0% FLAT
1h ✓ 21h Iran releases video of ship seizures as Trump remains silent on next steps
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30
1 article
Developing
6%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 1% FLAT
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 3% FLAT
1h Middle East conflict may spur ‘staycation’ trend, says Husqvarna CEO
NO ▲1¢
Iran leadership status
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 7% FLAT
1h Iran to pursue US-Israel attacks in international forums, nuclear deal odds drop
1h Tehran protests to UN over US using Arab states for strikes against Iran
Likely NO
U.S. forces seizing oil tankers
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ US escorts in hormuz 6% FLAT
19m US maintains blockade in Red Sea, tensions rise with Iran
Likely NO
Richest person on december 31, 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
21m Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders vote on $111B merger with Paramount Skydance
Likely NO
Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
22m Lebanon demands full Israeli withdrawal in peace talks, complicating progress
1h Hezbollah lawmaker opposes direct Israel talks, complicating diplomacy
Likely NO
Trump Iran demands (april)
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
✓ 226m EU adopts 20th sanctions package against Russia, targeting energy and military
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
28m US missile stockpiles depleted in Iran conflict, rebuilding expected
Likely NO
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
3 articles
Developing
11%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 8% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting dates 0% FLAT
✓ 333m Iran-US negotiations may see breakthrough soon, say Iranian sources
36m Iran tanker interception complicates US-Iran nuclear talks
1h France warns Israel of sanctions over Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon policies
Likely NO
Fed decisions from january to april
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision in june 2026 4% FLAT
34m Middle East conflict disrupts oil flows, inflation risks rise
50m Republicans uneasy as Democrats gain ground on economic issues ahead of 2026
Likely YES
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
2 articles
Developing
8%
⚡ Iran surrender enriched uranium 7% FLAT
2m US seizes Iranian oil tanker during ceasefire, complicating diplomacy
1h White House crafts NATO ‘naughty and nice’ list amid Iran conflict tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions for june 2023
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 1% FLAT
4m Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, but traders doubt $160 WTI in April
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions in april
2 articles
Developing
99.6%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 26 100% FLAT
5m Bitcoin holds steady above $68K amid US-Iran tensions, rising oil prices
16m US military runs Bitcoin node for cybersecurity amid China tensions
Likely NO
Warships through the strait of hormuz
1 article
Developing
12%
▼0¢
7m Iran principlists push for ship seizures in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Warships through the strait of hormuz 2% FLAT
8m Iran seizes two ships near Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply
Likely NO
US blockade of hormuz
1 article
Developing
74%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 73% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 1% FLAT
✓ 29m Iran seizes cargo ships in Hormuz, escalating tensions amid US blockade
Likely NO
Bank of japan decision in april 2026
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
10m Germany cuts growth forecast amid Iran conflict impact
Likely NO
ECB interest rates predictions for april 2026
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
✓ 214m Eurozone enters contraction amid Middle East conflict, first in 16 months
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high by date
2 articles
Developing
18%
▼0¢
15m BlackRock leads $1.9B Bitcoin ETF inflow streak as BTC nears $80,000
51m BTC ETFs see $2.2B inflows in 10 days, ETH ETFs $663M
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran enriched uranium surrender 7% FLAT
⚡ Iran surrender of enriched uranium stockpile 7% FLAT
16m Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surge past $100 per barrel
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump agreement
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 8% FLAT
41m US military seizes Iran-linked oil tanker amid sanction relief tensions
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates predictions for april 2026 0% FLAT
45m European car sales up 11% in March as fuel shock boosts EV demand
Likely YES
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
74%
⚡ US blockade of hormuz 73% FLAT
✓ 43m Pakistan proposes opening Strait of Hormuz for partial US sanctions relief on Iran
1h Iran calls US blockade act of war, escalating tensions in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
US escorts commercial ship through hormuz
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Gulf state military action against Iran 5% FLAT
⚡ US escorts through hormuz 6% FLAT
✓ 541m US military seizes Iran-linked oil tanker, escalating regional tensions
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
52m Tehran threatens diaspora asset seizures, revokes citizenship amid opposition crackdown
Likely NO
Fed decisions from march to june
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
53m Kevin Warsh questions inflation data accuracy, impacting Fed rate cut odds
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
54m Bitcoin falls from near $80K amid US-Israel-Iran conflict, oil price surge
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
54m Lebanon seeks Trump’s backing as Israeli ceasefire deadline looms
Likely NO
Iran regime fall
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
55m UN warns Iran war could push 30M into poverty, risking regime stability
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
56m Lebanon’s president labels Israeli journalist killing a ‘war crime’ amid talks
Likely NO
WTI crude oil price in april 2026
2 articles
Developing
71%
▼0¢
1h American Airlines cites $4B expense hike in Q1 2026 due to fuel prices
1h WTI crude oil unlikely to hit $160 in April amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
Developing
17%
▼0¢
1h Trump declares US-Iran ceasefire over, market resolves YES
Likely YES
Bitcoin price predictions for april 2026
1 article
Developing
71%
3m Tether freezes $344M in USDT on Tron amid Iran sanctions concerns
Likely NO
Trump's end of military operations against Iran
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Military advisers kept Trump out of command room during Iran rescue: WSJ
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in april 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
1h WTI crude oil markets stagnant despite US-Iran tensions, low trading volume
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting attendance
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Pakistan’s Munir brokers US-Iran ceasefire talks, reducing strike risk
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap
1 article
Developing
99%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in june 90% FLAT
⚡ Largest company by market cap on april 30 99% FLAT
1h Tesla acquires AI hardware firm for up to $2B in stock
Likely NO
USD.AI and predict.fun FDV launch
1 article
Developing
96%
▼0¢
1h Japan’s finance minister boosts coordination to stabilize JGB market
Likely NO
WTI crude oil price predictions for april 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 1% FLAT
1h Russia urges OPEC+ action on Hormuz blockade as oil volumes decline