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✓ 66h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 66h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
▼ Starmer out timing
14% (was 22%, ▼8¢ in 6h)
NO ▲8¢
Starmer out timing
3 articles
· 6h ago
14%
▼8¢
✓ 66h ✓ 918h Starmer faces pressure as Labour MPs call for resignation amid internal divides
✓ 1121h Keir Starmer vows to stay as Labour leader despite election losses, resignations
NO ▲7¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
3 articles
· 2h ago
51%
▼7¢
2h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
✓ 212h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, impacts WTI Crude pricing
✓ 321h Trump confident Strait of Hormuz will reopen, easing oil price concerns
NO ▲7¢
WTI crude oil on may 11, 2026
1 article
· 20h ago
51%
▼7¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 220h Iran conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply chains
NO ▲7¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 20h ago
51%
▼7¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 620h Pentagon’s Iran war bill hits $30B amid Trump’s renewed threats
NO ▲7¢
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
1 article
· 21h ago
51%
▼7¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
21h US-Iran tensions drive WTI crude oil price rally amid supply concerns
NO ▲6¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
51%
▼6¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
5h US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
NO ▲5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 9h ago
51%
▼5¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 69h Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation
NO ▲2¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
14%
▼2¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 33h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
NO ▲2¢
Israel airspace closure
1 article
· 5h ago
29%
▼2¢
5h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 72h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
NO ▲1¢
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
3 articles
· 3h ago
94%
▼1¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 23h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 25h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
✓ 2814h Nvidia stock hits record high as CEO joins Trump on China trip
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
3 articles
· 4h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 22% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
✓ 24h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
✓ 46h Iran aims to double oil revenues by controlling Strait of Hormuz
✓ 317h Vietnam oil firm urges US Navy to allow tanker through Hormuz blockade
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 5h ago
1%
▼1¢
✓ 25h Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
✓ 312h US inflation data dims Fed rate cut hopes amid Iran conflict
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 6h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
6h Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
YES ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 8h ago
29%
▲1¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 38h Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 10h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 810h Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
YES ▲1¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 14h ago
100%
▲1¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
✓ 214h Kevin Warsh confirmed to Federal Reserve Board, eyes Fed Chair role
NO ▲1¢
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
1 article
· 18h ago
5%
▼1¢
⚡ Potential strike on Iran by june 5% FLAT
✓ 518h Australia joins UK-led mission to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes
YES ▲1¢
Trump's statements this week
1 article
· 19h ago
29%
▲1¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
19h Neocons urge Trump to consider high-casualty ground operation in Iran
Likely NO
GameStop acquisition of ebay
2 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
2m GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
✓ 218h EBay rejects GameStop’s $55B takeover bid, citing financing concerns
Likely NO
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
Developing
56%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
1h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
Likely NO
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
3 articles
Developing
67%
▼0¢
1h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 22h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
19h Cerebras guides investors on IPO pricing above marketed range amid strong demand
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
· 2h ago
39%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
⚡ Israel airspace closure 30% FLAT
2h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
9h Iran conflict prompts GCC to bypass Strait of Hormuz with new logistics routes
✓ 216h Israel deploys Iron Dome to UAE amid Iran conflict escalation
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 22h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 42h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
· 6h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
✓ 36h Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 7h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel airspace closure 30% FLAT
7h Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
21h Netanyahu narrows demands in Iran talks, missile issues remain unresolved
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 8h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 78h Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
13h Strait of Hormuz closure boosts Bitcoin, silver appeal amid inflation fears
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 16h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 54% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 8% FLAT
✓ 516h Trump prioritizes Iran nuclear non-proliferation over economic concerns
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 18h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 100% FLAT
⚡ Trump meetings in may 2026 6% FLAT
✓ 2018h Trump to visit China for summit with Xi Jinping amid US-China tensions
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 19h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed chair confirmation predictions 100% FLAT
19h Jerome Powell to step down as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh expected successor
Likely NO
SpaceX IPO predictions
1 article
· 21h ago
16%
▼0¢
✓ 221h EBay rejects GameStop takeover bid, market sentiment shifts