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3h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
3h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
▼ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
49% (was 58%, ▼9¢ in 3h)
NO ▲9¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
49%
▼9¢
3h ✓ 213h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, impacts WTI Crude pricing
NO ▲9¢
Starmer out timing
2 articles
· 7h ago
13%
▼9¢
✓ 67h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
✓ 919h Starmer faces pressure as Labour MPs call for resignation amid internal divides
NO ▲9¢
WTI crude oil on may 11, 2026
1 article
· 20h ago
49%
▼9¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 220h Iran conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply chains
NO ▲9¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 21h ago
49%
▼9¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 621h Pentagon’s Iran war bill hits $30B amid Trump’s renewed threats
NO ▲8¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
49%
▼8¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
6h US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
NO ▲7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 10h ago
49%
▼7¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 610h Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation
NO ▲3¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
13%
▼3¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 44h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
NO ▲3¢
Israel airspace closure
1 article
· 6h ago
28%
▼3¢
6h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 3h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 73h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
NO ▲1¢
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
3 articles
· 4h ago
94%
▼1¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 34h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 25h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
✓ 2815h Nvidia stock hits record high as CEO joins Trump on China trip
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
3 articles
· 5h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 22% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
✓ 25h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
✓ 47h Iran aims to double oil revenues by controlling Strait of Hormuz
✓ 318h Vietnam oil firm urges US Navy to allow tanker through Hormuz blockade
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 6h ago
1%
▼1¢
✓ 26h Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
✓ 312h US inflation data dims Fed rate cut hopes amid Iran conflict
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 6h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
6h Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
YES ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 9h ago
29%
▲1¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 39h Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 11h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 811h Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
YES ▲1¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 15h ago
100%
▲1¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
✓ 215h Kevin Warsh confirmed to Federal Reserve Board, eyes Fed Chair role
NO ▲1¢
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
1 article
· 19h ago
5%
▼1¢
⚡ Potential strike on Iran by june 5% FLAT
✓ 519h Australia joins UK-led mission to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes
YES ▲1¢
Trump's statements this week
1 article
· 20h ago
29%
▲1¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
20h Neocons urge Trump to consider high-casualty ground operation in Iran
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
5 articles
Developing
39%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
3m Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
3h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
10h Iran conflict prompts GCC to bypass Strait of Hormuz with new logistics routes
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
13m Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 37h Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 1725m Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
19h Jerome Powell to step down as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh expected successor
Likely NO
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
Developing
12%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 343m US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
Likely NO
GameStop acquisition of ebay
2 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
53m GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
✓ 219h EBay rejects GameStop’s $55B takeover bid, citing financing concerns
Likely NO
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
Developing
56%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
1h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
Likely NO
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
3 articles
· 2h ago
67%
▼0¢
2h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 23h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
20h Cerebras guides investors on IPO pricing above marketed range amid strong demand
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 23h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 43h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 7h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel airspace closure 30% FLAT
7h Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
22h Netanyahu narrows demands in Iran talks, missile issues remain unresolved
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 9h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 79h Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
14h Strait of Hormuz closure boosts Bitcoin, silver appeal amid inflation fears
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 17h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 54% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 8% FLAT
✓ 517h Trump prioritizes Iran nuclear non-proliferation over economic concerns
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 19h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 100% FLAT
⚡ Trump meetings in may 2026 6% FLAT
✓ 2019h Trump to visit China for summit with Xi Jinping amid US-China tensions