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✓ 68h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 68h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
▼ Starmer out timing
13% (was 22%, ▼9¢ in 8h)
NO ▲9¢
Starmer out timing
2 articles
· 8h ago
13%
▼9¢
✓ 68h ✓ 920h Starmer faces pressure as Labour MPs call for resignation amid internal divides
NO ▲8¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 4h ago
50%
▼8¢
4h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
✓ 214h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, impacts WTI Crude pricing
NO ▲7¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 7h ago
50%
▼7¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
7h US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
NO ▲6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 11h ago
50%
▼6¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 611h Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation
NO ▲5¢
Israel airspace closure
1 article
· 7h ago
26%
▼5¢
7h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
NO ▲3¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
13%
▼3¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 55h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
4 articles
Developing
8%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 23% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
37m Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
✓ 26h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
✓ 48h Iran aims to double oil revenues by controlling Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲1¢
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
Developing
11%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 31h US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 7h ago
1%
▼1¢
✓ 27h Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
✓ 313h US inflation data dims Fed rate cut hopes amid Iran conflict
YES ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 10h ago
29%
▲1¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 310h Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 12h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 812h Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
YES ▲1¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 16h ago
100%
▲1¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
✓ 316h Kevin Warsh confirmed to Federal Reserve Board, eyes Fed Chair role
YES ▲1¢
Trump's statements this week
1 article
· 21h ago
29%
▲1¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
21h Neocons urge Trump to consider high-casualty ground operation in Iran
Likely NO
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
2 articles
Developing
32%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
6m UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
✓ 520h Australia joins UK-led mission to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
Developing
17%
▼0¢
✓ 333m Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
8h Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
5 articles
Developing
39%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
1h Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
4h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
11h Iran conflict prompts GCC to bypass Strait of Hormuz with new logistics routes
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
✓ 31h Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 38h Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 371h Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
20h Jerome Powell to step down as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh expected successor
Likely NO
GameStop acquisition of ebay
2 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
✓ 21h GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
✓ 220h EBay rejects GameStop’s $55B takeover bid, citing financing concerns
Likely NO
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
2h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 2h ago
56%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
2h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
Likely NO
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
3 articles
· 3h ago
67%
▼0¢
3h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 24h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
21h Cerebras guides investors on IPO pricing above marketed range amid strong demand
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 4h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 24h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 44h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 74h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
Likely NO
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
3 articles
· 5h ago
95%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 45h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 26h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
✓ 2816h Nvidia stock hits record high as CEO joins Trump on China trip
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 7h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
7h Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 10h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 710h Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
15h Strait of Hormuz closure boosts Bitcoin, silver appeal amid inflation fears
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 18h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 54% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 8% FLAT
✓ 518h Trump prioritizes Iran nuclear non-proliferation over economic concerns
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 20h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 100% FLAT
⚡ Trump meetings in may 2026 6% FLAT
✓ 2020h Trump to visit China for summit with Xi Jinping amid US-China tensions