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✓ 69h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 69h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
▼ Starmer out timing
13% (was 22%, ▼9¢ in 9h)
NO ▲9¢
Starmer out timing
2 articles
· 9h ago
13%
▼9¢
✓ 69h ✓ 921h Starmer faces pressure as Labour MPs call for resignation amid internal divides
NO ▲7¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 5h ago
51%
▼7¢
5h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
✓ 214h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, impacts WTI Crude pricing
NO ▲6¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 8h ago
51%
▼6¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
8h US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
YES ▲6¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 17h ago
28%
▲6¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
✓ 317h Kevin Warsh confirmed to Federal Reserve Board, eyes Fed Chair role
NO ▲5¢
Israel airspace closure
1 article
· 8h ago
26%
▼5¢
8h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
NO ▲5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 12h ago
51%
▼5¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 612h Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation
YES ▲4¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
2 articles
· 2h ago
28%
▲4¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 392h Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
21h Jerome Powell to step down as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh expected successor
NO ▲3¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
13%
▼3¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 56h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
YES ▲2¢
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
3 articles
· 3h ago
69%
▲2¢
✓ 33h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 25h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
22h Cerebras guides investors on IPO pricing above marketed range amid strong demand
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 5h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 75h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 8h ago
1%
▼1¢
✓ 28h Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
✓ 314h US inflation data dims Fed rate cut hopes amid Iran conflict
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 8h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
8h Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
YES ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 11h ago
29%
▲1¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 311h Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 13h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 813h Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
⚡ Fed decision june and july 1% FLAT
36m Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
Likely NO
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
2 articles
Developing
32%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
58m UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
✓ 521h Australia joins UK-led mission to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
Developing
17%
▼0¢
✓ 31h Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
9h Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
4 articles
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 23% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
1h Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
✓ 37h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
✓ 49h Iran aims to double oil revenues by controlling Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
5 articles
Developing
39%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
1h Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
4h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
12h Iran conflict prompts GCC to bypass Strait of Hormuz with new logistics routes
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
· 2h ago
41%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
✓ 32h Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 39h Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
12%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 42h US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
Likely NO
GameStop acquisition of ebay
2 articles
· 2h ago
16%
▼0¢
✓ 22h GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
✓ 220h EBay rejects GameStop’s $55B takeover bid, citing financing concerns
Likely NO
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 23h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 3h ago
56%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
3h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 5h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 25h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 45h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
3 articles
· 5h ago
95%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 45h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 27h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
✓ 2817h Nvidia stock hits record high as CEO joins Trump on China trip
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 11h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 711h Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
16h Strait of Hormuz closure boosts Bitcoin, silver appeal amid inflation fears
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 19h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 54% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 8% FLAT
✓ 519h Trump prioritizes Iran nuclear non-proliferation over economic concerns
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 21h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 100% FLAT
⚡ Trump meetings in may 2026 6% FLAT
✓ 2021h Trump to visit China for summit with Xi Jinping amid US-China tensions