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✓ 611h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 611h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
▼ Starmer out timing
13% (was 22%, ▼9¢ in 11h)
NO ▲9¢
Starmer out timing
2 articles
· 11h ago
13%
▼9¢
✓ 611h ✓ 923h Starmer faces pressure as Labour MPs call for resignation amid internal divides
NO ▲7¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 7h ago
51%
▼7¢
7h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
✓ 216h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, impacts WTI Crude pricing
NO ▲6¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 10h ago
51%
▼6¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
10h US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
NO ▲5¢
Israel airspace closure
1 article
· 10h ago
26%
▼5¢
10h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
NO ▲5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 14h ago
51%
▼5¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 614h Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation
YES ▲4¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 19h ago
26%
▲4¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
✓ 319h Kevin Warsh confirmed to Federal Reserve Board, eyes Fed Chair role
NO ▲3¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 8h ago
13%
▼3¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 68h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
YES ▲2¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 4h ago
26%
▲2¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 394h Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 15h ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 815h Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
NO ▲1¢
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
2 articles
· 3h ago
31%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
3h UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
✓ 523h Australia joins UK-led mission to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes
NO ▲1¢
Iran military action against neighbors
5 articles
· 3h ago
38%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
3h Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
6h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
14h Iran conflict prompts GCC to bypass Strait of Hormuz with new logistics routes
NO ▲1¢
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
11%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 44h US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
YES ▲1¢
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 5h ago
7%
▲1¢
✓ 25h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
YES ▲1¢
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
2 articles
· 5h ago
3%
▲1¢
✓ 35h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 27h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 7h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 77h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 10h ago
1%
▼1¢
✓ 210h Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
✓ 316h US inflation data dims Fed rate cut hopes amid Iran conflict
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 10h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
10h Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 13h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 713h Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
18h Strait of Hormuz closure boosts Bitcoin, silver appeal amid inflation fears
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 13h ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 313h Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 21h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 54% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 8% FLAT
✓ 521h Trump prioritizes Iran nuclear non-proliferation over economic concerns
Likely YES
Trump's xi summit attendance
1 article
Developing
8%
3m Melania Trump confirmed at Trump-Xi summit in China
Likely NO
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
Developing
51%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
1h Iran conflict impacts energy markets as Trump heads to China for talks
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
⚡ Fed decision june and july 1% FLAT
2h Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 3h ago
17%
▼0¢
✓ 53h Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
11h Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
4 articles
· 3h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 23% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
3h Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
✓ 39h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
✓ 411h Iran aims to double oil revenues by controlling Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
· 4h ago
41%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
✓ 44h Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 311h Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
GameStop acquisition of ebay
2 articles
· 4h ago
16%
▼0¢
✓ 24h GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
✓ 223h EBay rejects GameStop’s $55B takeover bid, citing financing concerns
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 5h ago
56%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
5h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 7h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 27h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 47h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
3 articles
· 7h ago
95%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 47h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 29h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
✓ 2819h Nvidia stock hits record high as CEO joins Trump on China trip
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 23h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 100% FLAT
⚡ Trump meetings in may 2026 6% FLAT
✓ 2023h Trump to visit China for summit with Xi Jinping amid US-China tensions