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✓ 612h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 612h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
▼ Starmer out timing
14% (was 22%, ▼8¢ in 12h)
NO ▲8¢
Starmer out timing
2 articles
· 12h ago
14%
▼8¢
✓ 612h ✓ 91d Starmer faces pressure as Labour MPs call for resignation amid internal divides
NO ▲7¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 8h ago
51%
▼7¢
8h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
✓ 217h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, impacts WTI Crude pricing
NO ▲6¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 11h ago
51%
▼6¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
11h US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
NO ▲5¢
Israel airspace closure
1 article
· 11h ago
26%
▼5¢
11h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
NO ▲5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 15h ago
51%
▼5¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 615h Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation
YES ▲5¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 20h ago
27%
▲5¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
✓ 320h Kevin Warsh confirmed to Federal Reserve Board, eyes Fed Chair role
YES ▲3¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 5h ago
27%
▲3¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 395h Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
NO ▲2¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 9h ago
14%
▼2¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 69h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 16h ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 816h Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
NO ▲1¢
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
2 articles
· 3h ago
31%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
3h UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
✓ 51d Australia joins UK-led mission to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes
NO ▲1¢
Iran military action against neighbors
5 articles
· 4h ago
38%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
4h Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
7h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
15h Iran conflict prompts GCC to bypass Strait of Hormuz with new logistics routes
NO ▲1¢
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
11%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 55h US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
YES ▲1¢
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 6h ago
7%
▲1¢
✓ 26h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
YES ▲1¢
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
2 articles
· 6h ago
3%
▲1¢
✓ 36h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 28h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 8h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 78h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 11h ago
1%
▼1¢
✓ 211h Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
✓ 317h US inflation data dims Fed rate cut hopes amid Iran conflict
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 11h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
11h Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 14h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 714h Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
19h Strait of Hormuz closure boosts Bitcoin, silver appeal amid inflation fears
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 14h ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 314h Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 22h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 54% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 8% FLAT
✓ 522h Trump prioritizes Iran nuclear non-proliferation over economic concerns
Likely YES
Trump's xi summit attendance
1 article
Developing
8%
56m Melania Trump confirmed at Trump-Xi summit in China
Likely NO
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
· 2h ago
51%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
2h Iran conflict impacts energy markets as Trump heads to China for talks
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
⚡ Fed decision june and july 1% FLAT
3h Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 4h ago
17%
▼0¢
✓ 54h Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
12h Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
4 articles
· 4h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 23% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
4h Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
✓ 310h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
✓ 412h Iran aims to double oil revenues by controlling Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
· 5h ago
41%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
✓ 45h Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 312h Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
GameStop acquisition of ebay
2 articles
· 5h ago
16%
▼0¢
✓ 25h GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
✓ 223h EBay rejects GameStop’s $55B takeover bid, citing financing concerns
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 6h ago
56%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
6h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 8h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 28h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 48h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
3 articles
· 8h ago
95%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 48h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 210h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
✓ 2820h Nvidia stock hits record high as CEO joins Trump on China trip
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 1d ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 100% FLAT
⚡ Trump meetings in may 2026 6% FLAT
✓ 201d Trump to visit China for summit with Xi Jinping amid US-China tensions