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✓ 615h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 615h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
▼ Starmer out timing
13% (was 22%, ▼9¢ in 15h)
NO ▲7¢
Israel airspace closure
1 article
· 14h ago
24%
▼7¢
14h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
NO ▲6¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 11h ago
52%
▼6¢
11h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
✓ 220h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, impacts WTI Crude pricing
NO ▲5¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 13h ago
52%
▼5¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
13h US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
YES ▲5¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 23h ago
27%
▲5¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
✓ 323h Kevin Warsh confirmed to Federal Reserve Board, eyes Fed Chair role
NO ▲4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 18h ago
52%
▼4¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 618h Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation
YES ▲3¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 8h ago
27%
▲3¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 398h Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
NO ▲3¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 11h ago
13%
▼3¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 611h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
NO ▲2¢
Iran military action against neighbors
5 articles
· 7h ago
37%
▼2¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
7h Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
10h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
18h Iran conflict prompts GCC to bypass Strait of Hormuz with new logistics routes
YES ▲2¢
GameStop acquisition of ebay
2 articles
· 8h ago
18%
▲2¢
✓ 28h GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
✓ 21d EBay rejects GameStop’s $55B takeover bid, citing financing concerns
YES ▲1¢
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
2 articles
Developing
52%
▲1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
56m US embargo on Hormuz Strait impacts Cuba’s energy supply
6h Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
· 5h ago
52%
▲1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
5h Iran conflict impacts energy markets as Trump heads to China for talks
NO ▲1¢
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
· 8h ago
11%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 58h US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
YES ▲1¢
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 9h ago
7%
▲1¢
✓ 29h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
YES ▲1¢
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
2 articles
· 9h ago
3%
▲1¢
✓ 39h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 211h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 11h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 711h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 14h ago
1%
▼1¢
✓ 214h Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
✓ 320h US inflation data dims Fed rate cut hopes amid Iran conflict
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 14h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
14h Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 19h ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 819h Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
Likely NO
Trump project freedom restart dates
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 47% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
43m Iran deploys submarines to Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
1 article
· 6h ago
32%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
6h UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 7h ago
17%
▼0¢
✓ 77h Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
15h Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
4 articles
· 7h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 23% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
7h Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
✓ 313h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
✓ 415h Iran aims to double oil revenues by controlling Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
· 7h ago
41%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
✓ 47h Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 314h Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 9h ago
56%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
9h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 10h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 210h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 411h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
3 articles
· 11h ago
95%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 411h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 213h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
✓ 2823h Nvidia stock hits record high as CEO joins Trump on China trip
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 16h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 716h Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
22h Strait of Hormuz closure boosts Bitcoin, silver appeal amid inflation fears
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 16h ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 316h Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
Likely YES
Trump's xi summit attendance
1 article
· 3h ago
8%
✓ 63h Melania Trump confirmed at Trump-Xi summit in China
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 1d ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 54% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 8% FLAT
✓ 51d Trump prioritizes Iran nuclear non-proliferation over economic concerns
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 1d ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 100% FLAT
⚡ Trump meetings in may 2026 6% FLAT
✓ 201d Trump to visit China for summit with Xi Jinping amid US-China tensions