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✓ 617h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 617h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
▼ Starmer out timing
13% (was 22%, ▼9¢ in 17h)
NO ▲8¢
Israel airspace closure
1 article
· 15h ago
23%
▼8¢
15h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
NO ▲4¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 13h ago
54%
▼4¢
13h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
✓ 222h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, impacts WTI Crude pricing
YES ▲4¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 1d ago
26%
▲4¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
✓ 31d Kevin Warsh confirmed to Federal Reserve Board, eyes Fed Chair role
YES ▲3¢
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
54%
▲3¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
2h US embargo on Hormuz Strait impacts Cuba’s energy supply
8h Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
YES ▲3¢
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
· 6h ago
54%
▲3¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
6h Iran conflict impacts energy markets as Trump heads to China for talks
NO ▲3¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 13h ago
13%
▼3¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 613h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
NO ▲3¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 15h ago
54%
▼3¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
15h US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
NO ▲2¢
Iran military action against neighbors
5 articles
· 9h ago
37%
▼2¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
9h Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
12h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
19h Iran conflict prompts GCC to bypass Strait of Hormuz with new logistics routes
YES ▲2¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 9h ago
26%
▲2¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 399h Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
YES ▲2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 11h ago
58%
▲2¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
11h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 18h ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 718h Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
23h Strait of Hormuz closure boosts Bitcoin, silver appeal amid inflation fears
NO ▲2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 20h ago
54%
▼2¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 620h Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 20h ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 820h Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
NO ▲1¢
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
· 10h ago
11%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 510h US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
YES ▲1¢
GameStop acquisition of ebay
2 articles
· 10h ago
17%
▲1¢
✓ 210h GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
✓ 21d EBay rejects GameStop’s $55B takeover bid, citing financing concerns
YES ▲1¢
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 11h ago
7%
▲1¢
✓ 211h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 13h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 713h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 15h ago
1%
▼1¢
✓ 215h Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
✓ 322h US inflation data dims Fed rate cut hopes amid Iran conflict
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 16h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
16h Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
Likely NO
Israel strikes in 2026
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel ceasefire extension 4% FLAT
6m Hezbollah escalates conflict with three attacks on Israeli forces
Likely NO
Trump project freedom restart dates
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 47% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
2h Iran deploys submarines to Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
1 article
· 8h ago
32%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
8h UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 8h ago
17%
▼0¢
✓ 78h Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
17h Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
4 articles
· 8h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 23% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
8h Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
✓ 314h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
✓ 417h Iran aims to double oil revenues by controlling Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
· 9h ago
41%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
✓ 49h Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 316h Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
2 articles
· 11h ago
1%
▼0¢
✓ 311h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 212h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 12h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 212h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 412h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely YES
Trump's xi summit attendance
1 article
· 5h ago
8%
✓ 75h Melania Trump confirmed at Trump-Xi summit in China
Likely NO
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
3 articles
· 13h ago
95%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 413h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 215h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
✓ 281d Nvidia stock hits record high as CEO joins Trump on China trip
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 18h ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 318h Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 1d ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 54% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 8% FLAT
✓ 51d Trump prioritizes Iran nuclear non-proliferation over economic concerns