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16h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
16h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
▼ Israel airspace closure
23% (was 31%, ▼8¢ in 16h)
NO ▲4¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 14h ago
54%
▼4¢
14h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
✓ 223h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, impacts WTI Crude pricing
YES ▲4¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 1d ago
26%
▲4¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
✓ 31d Kevin Warsh confirmed to Federal Reserve Board, eyes Fed Chair role
YES ▲3¢
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
54%
▲3¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
3h US embargo on Hormuz Strait impacts Cuba’s energy supply
9h Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
YES ▲3¢
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
· 7h ago
54%
▲3¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
7h Iran conflict impacts energy markets as Trump heads to China for talks
NO ▲3¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 16h ago
54%
▼3¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
16h US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
YES ▲2¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 10h ago
26%
▲2¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 3910h Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
YES ▲2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 12h ago
58%
▲2¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
12h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 19h ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 719h Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
1d Strait of Hormuz closure boosts Bitcoin, silver appeal amid inflation fears
NO ▲2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 21h ago
54%
▼2¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 621h Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 21h ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 821h Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
NO ▲1¢
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
· 10h ago
38%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
10h Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
13h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
20h Iran conflict prompts GCC to bypass Strait of Hormuz with new logistics routes
NO ▲1¢
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
· 11h ago
11%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 511h US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
YES ▲1¢
GameStop acquisition of ebay
1 article
· 11h ago
17%
▲1¢
✓ 211h GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
YES ▲1¢
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 12h ago
7%
▲1¢
✓ 212h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
YES ▲1¢
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
2 articles
· 12h ago
3%
▲1¢
✓ 312h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 213h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 14h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 714h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
YES ▲1¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 14h ago
14%
▲1¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 614h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 17h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
17h Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
YES ▲1¢
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 18h ago
14%
▲1¢
✓ 618h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 442m Solana drops 5%, Bitcoin below $80K amid US-China tensions over Taiwan
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
11%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 26% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 11% FLAT
51m Iran ‘frighteningly close’ to nuclear weapons, warns US energy secretary
Likely NO
Israel strikes in 2026
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel ceasefire extension 4% FLAT
1h Hezbollah escalates conflict with three attacks on Israeli forces
Likely NO
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
1 article
· 9h ago
32%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
9h UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 9h ago
17%
▼0¢
✓ 79h Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
18h Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
4 articles
· 9h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 23% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
9h Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
✓ 315h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
✓ 418h Iran aims to double oil revenues by controlling Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
· 10h ago
41%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
✓ 410h Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 317h Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 13h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 213h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 413h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
3 articles
· 14h ago
95%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 414h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 216h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
✓ 281d Nvidia stock hits record high as CEO joins Trump on China trip
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 16h ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 216h Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
✓ 323h US inflation data dims Fed rate cut hopes amid Iran conflict
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 19h ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 319h Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
Likely YES
Trump's xi summit attendance
1 article
· 6h ago
8%
✓ 76h Melania Trump confirmed at Trump-Xi summit in China
Likely NO
Trump project freedom restart dates
1 article
· 3h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 47% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
3h Iran deploys submarines to Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 1d ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 54% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 8% FLAT
✓ 51d Trump prioritizes Iran nuclear non-proliferation over economic concerns