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17h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
17h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
▼ Israel airspace closure
23% (was 31%, ▼8¢ in 17h)
YES ▲6¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 15h ago
19%
▲6¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 615h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
YES ▲6¢
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 19h ago
19%
▲6¢
✓ 619h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
YES ▲3¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 1d ago
25%
▲3¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
✓ 31d Kevin Warsh confirmed to Federal Reserve Board, eyes Fed Chair role
NO ▲2¢
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
· 12h ago
10%
▼2¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 512h US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 20h ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 720h Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
1d Strait of Hormuz closure boosts Bitcoin, silver appeal amid inflation fears
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 22h ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 822h Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
NO ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
10%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 26% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 11% FLAT
2h Iran ‘frighteningly close’ to nuclear weapons, warns US energy secretary
NO ▲1¢
Israel strikes in 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Israel ceasefire extension 4% FLAT
2h Hezbollah escalates conflict with three attacks on Israeli forces
YES ▲1¢
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
2 articles
· 4h ago
6%
▲1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
4h US embargo on Hormuz Strait impacts Cuba’s energy supply
10h Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
YES ▲1¢
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
1 article
· 10h ago
33%
▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
10h UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
NO ▲1¢
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
· 11h ago
38%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 38% FLAT
11h Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
14h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
21h Iran conflict prompts GCC to bypass Strait of Hormuz with new logistics routes
YES ▲1¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 11h ago
25%
▲1¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 3911h Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
YES ▲1¢
GameStop acquisition of ebay
1 article
· 12h ago
17%
▲1¢
✓ 212h GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
YES ▲1¢
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 13h ago
7%
▲1¢
✓ 213h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 13h ago
57%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
13h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
YES ▲1¢
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
2 articles
· 13h ago
3%
▲1¢
✓ 313h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 214h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 15h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 715h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
YES ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 15h ago
6%
▲1¢
15h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
✓ 21d Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, impacts WTI Crude pricing
YES ▲1¢
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
3 articles
· 15h ago
96%
▲1¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 415h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 217h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
✓ 281d Nvidia stock hits record high as CEO joins Trump on China trip
YES ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 17h ago
6%
▲1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
17h US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 18h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
18h Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
YES ▲1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 22h ago
6%
▲1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 622h Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
24m Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $635M amid Middle East tensions
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 41h Solana drops 5%, Bitcoin below $80K amid US-China tensions over Taiwan
Likely NO
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
· 8h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
8h Iran conflict impacts energy markets as Trump heads to China for talks
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 11h ago
17%
▼0¢
✓ 711h Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
19h Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
3 articles
· 11h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 23% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
11h Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
✓ 317h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
✓ 419h Iran aims to double oil revenues by controlling Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
· 11h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
✓ 411h Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 318h Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 14h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 214h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 415h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 17h ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 217h Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
✓ 31d US inflation data dims Fed rate cut hopes amid Iran conflict
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 20h ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 320h Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
Likely YES
Trump's xi summit attendance
1 article
· 7h ago
8%
✓ 77h Melania Trump confirmed at Trump-Xi summit in China
Likely NO
Trump project freedom restart dates
1 article
· 4h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 47% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
4h Iran deploys submarines to Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 1d ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 54% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 8% FLAT
✓ 51d Trump prioritizes Iran nuclear non-proliferation over economic concerns