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Prediction Markets

Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.

Israel ceasefire extension 57% ▲6¢ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 28% ▲4¢ S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026 8% ▼4¢ Israel strikes in 2026 57% ▼4¢ Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31 35% ▲3¢ Next UK prime minister in 2026 13% ▼3¢ Israel airspace closure 28% ▼3¢ Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting 8% ▼3¢ Xi meets with Iranian officials by may 15 9% ▲2¢ Trump project freedom restart dates 9% ▲2¢ US-Iran peace deal 4% ▼2¢ Solana price predictions for may 5% ▲2¢ Starmer out timing 40% ▲2¢ NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026 97% ▲2¢ S&P 500 up or down on may 7 8% ▲2¢ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 9% ▲1¢ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 9% ▲1¢ Fed decision june and july 2% ▲1¢ WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026 4% ▼1¢ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 4% ▼1¢ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 4% ▼1¢ GameStop acquisition of ebay 17% ▲1¢ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 57% ▲1¢ SpaceX public ticker predictions 2% ▼1¢ Strait of hormuz ship transit 9% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price targets 0% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 5% ▼0¢ US invasion of Iran 28% ▼0¢ Iran airspace closure 28% ▼0¢ Iran military action against neighbors 38% ▼0¢ Trump's xi summit attendance 8% Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 17% ▼0¢ Netanyahu out 5% ▼0¢ Cerebras IPO market cap predictions 2% ▼0¢ Fed rate cut timing 2% ▼0¢ Israel ceasefire extension 57% ▲6¢ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 28% ▲4¢ S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026 8% ▼4¢ Israel strikes in 2026 57% ▼4¢ Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31 35% ▲3¢ Next UK prime minister in 2026 13% ▼3¢ Israel airspace closure 28% ▼3¢ Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting 8% ▼3¢ Xi meets with Iranian officials by may 15 9% ▲2¢ Trump project freedom restart dates 9% ▲2¢ US-Iran peace deal 4% ▼2¢ Solana price predictions for may 5% ▲2¢ Starmer out timing 40% ▲2¢ NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026 97% ▲2¢ S&P 500 up or down on may 7 8% ▲2¢ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 9% ▲1¢ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 9% ▲1¢ Fed decision june and july 2% ▲1¢ WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026 4% ▼1¢ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 4% ▼1¢ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 4% ▼1¢ GameStop acquisition of ebay 17% ▲1¢ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 57% ▲1¢ SpaceX public ticker predictions 2% ▼1¢ Strait of hormuz ship transit 9% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price targets 0% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 5% ▼0¢ US invasion of Iran 28% ▼0¢ Iran airspace closure 28% ▼0¢ Iran military action against neighbors 38% ▼0¢ Trump's xi summit attendance 8% Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 17% ▼0¢ Netanyahu out 5% ▼0¢ Cerebras IPO market cap predictions 2% ▼0¢ Fed rate cut timing 2% ▼0¢
Middle East Eye1h

Israel and Lebanon begin peace talks in Washington amid ceasefire uncertainty

▲ Israel ceasefire extension
57% (was 51%, ▲6¢ in 1h)
YES ▲6¢ Israel ceasefire extension 1 article Developing
57% ▲6¢
Y▲6
Middle East Eye1h
Israel and Lebanon begin peace talks in Washington amid ceasefire uncertainty
NO ▲4¢ Israel strikes in 2026 1 article · 10h ago
57% ▼4¢
⚡ Israel ceasefire extension 4% FLAT
N▲4
Middle East EyeThe CradleJerusalem Post✓ 310h
Hezbollah escalates conflict with three attacks on Israeli forces
YES ▲4¢ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1 article · 20h ago
28% ▲4¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
Y▲4
Solidintel_xBitcoinArchiveFirstSquawkCHItraderFinancialjuiceFTCnnbrkAxiosTheBlockCoThe BlockUnusual_whalesBusinessReutersCNBCWalter BloombergFaststocknewssFox News (Main)StockMKTNewzVivek4real_CBS PoliticsCoinDeskMartypartymusicWashingtonpostSecScottBessentNytimesCoinbureauZerohedgeThe HillMarioNawfalTFTC21Crypto_BriefingWSJRapidResponse47DecryptDecryptMediaFxhedgersTenet_researchBBCWorldRPP Noticias✓ 3920h
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
NO ▲4¢ S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026 1 article · 20h ago
8% ▼4¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
N▲4
Solidintel_xCHItraderTenet_researchMarioNawfalJerusalem Post (sitemap)✓ 520h
US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
NO ▲3¢ Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting 1 article · 10h ago
8% ▼3¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 26% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 11% FLAT
N▲3
Jerusalem Post (sitemap)Iran International (Main)✓ 210h
Iran ‘frighteningly close’ to nuclear weapons, warns US energy secretary
YES ▲3¢ Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31 1 article · 18h ago
35% ▲3¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
Y▲3
USNI News18h
UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
NO ▲3¢ Next UK prime minister in 2026 1 article · 23h ago
13% ▼3¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
N▲3
Politico EuropeCHItraderBusinessReutersFTBBC News✓ 623h
Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
NO ▲3¢ Israel airspace closure 1 article · 1d ago
28% ▼3¢
N▲3
Ynetnews1d
Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
YES ▲2¢ Xi meets with Iranian officials by may 15 2 articles · 4h ago
9% ▲2¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 24% FLAT
Y▲2
Al Jazeera (Main)4h
Iran’s Hormuz closure threatens global trade, raises hunger crisis fears
Y↑
New York PostMiddle East EyeAl-MonitorCBS PoliticsRPP NoticiasFox News (Main)EuronewsNBC NewsThe HillAl Jazeera (Main)✓ 105h
Trump, Xi agree to keep Strait of Hormuz open amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲2¢ Solana price predictions for may 1 article · 10h ago
5% ▲2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
Y▲2
CoinDeskKyiv PostIran International (Main)Jerusalem Post (sitemap)Telex.huRTPress TVThe Hill✓ 810h
Solana drops 5%, Bitcoin below $80K amid US-China tensions over Taiwan
YES ▲2¢ Trump project freedom restart dates 1 article · 12h ago
9% ▲2¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 47% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
Y▲2
Fox News (Main)New York Post✓ 212h
Iran deploys submarines to Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
NO ▲2¢ US-Iran peace deal 1 article · 17h ago
4% ▼2¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
N▲2
Politico Europe17h
Iran conflict impacts energy markets as Trump heads to China for talks
YES ▲2¢ S&P 500 up or down on may 7 1 article · 21h ago
8% ▲2¢
Y▲2
JA_MaartunKobeissiLetter✓ 221h
S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
YES ▲2¢ NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026 2 articles · 23h ago
97% ▲2¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
Y▲2
CointelegraphCoinbureauUnusual_whalesCHItrader✓ 423h
Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
Y▲3
CHItraderWatcherGuru✓ 21d
Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
NO ▲1¢ SpaceX public ticker predictions 1 article · 5h ago
2% ▼1¢
⚡ SpaceX IPO predictions 70% FLAT
N▲1
Axios5h
SpaceX IPO anticipation grows with June 2026 target amid market interest
NO ▲1¢ WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026 2 articles · 12h ago
4% ▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
N▲1
Middle East Eye12h
US embargo on Hormuz Strait impacts Cuba’s energy supply
Y▲1
MarioNawfal18h
Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
YES ▲1¢ GameStop acquisition of ebay 1 article · 20h ago
17% ▲1¢
Y▲1
FTTFTC21✓ 220h
GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
YES ▲1¢ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 1 article · 21h ago
57% ▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
Y▲1
FirstSquawk21h
Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
YES ▲1¢ Fed decision june and july 2 articles · 22h ago
2% ▲1¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
Y▲1
FirstSquawkFinancialjuice✓ 222h
Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
Y▲1
Walter BloombergTenet_researchFirstSquawkCHItrader✓ 423h
Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
YES ▲1¢ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 1 article · 23h ago
9% ▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
Y▲1
CENTCOMCHItraderTenet_researchFinancialjuiceFirstSquawkZerohedgeFoxNews✓ 723h
CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
NO ▲1¢ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 1 article · 23h ago
4% ▼1¢
N▲1
Unusual_whales23h
Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
NO ▲1¢ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 1 article · 1d ago
4% ▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
N▲1
Business1d
US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
YES ▲1¢ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 1 article · 1d ago
9% ▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
Y▲1
Zerohedge1d
Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
Likely NO US invasion of Iran 1 article · 5h ago
28% ▼0¢
⚡ Trump project freedom restart dates 2% FLAT
Y↑
Fox News (Main)5h
Iran restores missile capabilities, raising US military escalation risks
Likely NO Bitcoin price targets 1 article · 8h ago
0% ▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
N↑
CoinDeskDecryptThe Block (Crypto)✓ 38h
Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $635M amid Middle East tensions
Likely NO Netanyahu out 2 articles · 19h ago
5% ▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
Y↑
Jerusalem Post (sitemap)YnetnewsJerusalem PostThe Guardian✓ 419h
Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
Y↑
YnetnewsTelex.huJerusalem Post (sitemap)✓ 31d
Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely YES Trump's xi summit attendance 1 article · 15h ago
8%
Y↑
New York Times WorldCBS PoliticsNew York PostNBC NewsRTThe HillRPP NoticiasAl Jazeera (Main)Fox News (Main)✓ 915h
Melania Trump confirmed at Trump-Xi summit in China
Likely NO Fed rate cut timing 1 article · 1d ago
2% ▼0¢
N↑
WSJNew York Post✓ 21d
Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
Likely NO Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 1 article · 1d ago
5% ▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
Y↑
blockchain24RCoinDeskTyler_Did_ItGlassnodeTheBlockCoCoinbureauMarioNawfal✓ 71d
Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
Likely NO Iran airspace closure 1 article · 1d ago
28% ▼0¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
Y↑
New York PostCBS WorldZerohedge✓ 31d
Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire