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41m Iranian MP warns of possible war, urges public readiness
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
41m Iranian MP warns of possible war, urges public readiness
▼ US declaration of war on Iran
2% (was 3%, ▼1¢ in 41m)
⚡ Iranian regime fall: 8% FLAT · US-Iran peace deal: 2% FLAT
NO ▲1¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
Developing
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 8% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 2% FLAT
41m 
YES ▲1¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
Developing
93%
▲1¢
✓ 71h Tillis lifts blockade, clearing path for Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination by May 15
YES ▲1¢
Fed chair confirmation predictions
1 article
Developing
93%
▲1¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 2% FLAT
✓ 31h Tillis backs Warsh for Fed Chair as DOJ drops Powell probe
NO ▲1¢
Iranian regime fall
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 2% FLAT
2h Iran seizes two ships near Strait of Hormuz, raising tensions
NO ▲1¢
Who will meet with Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 2% FLAT
✓ 122h Gunfire at White House dinner disrupts US-Iran diplomacy efforts
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
15%
▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 14% FLAT
✓ 42h Iran, Oman leaders discuss Strait of Hormuz security amid tensions
NO ▲1¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Gulf state military action against Iran 4% FLAT
✓ 23h Israel deploys Iron Dome, troops to UAE amid Iran conflict
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting dates
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 2% FLAT
3h US-Iran talks stall, April 24 meeting unlikely as odds plummet
YES ▲1¢
Richest person on december 31, 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▲1¢
3h Tesla vandalism rises as protesters target Musk over government role
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
2m Hezbollah attacks Israeli troops, breaking fragile ceasefire
2h Wounded Israeli soldiers moved to Haifa amid ceasefire stability concerns
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump agreement
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 3% FLAT
5m US ramps up pressure on Iran with Operation Economic Fury
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 4% FLAT
7m Ahmad Vahidi’s influence grows as IRGC power shifts in Iran
1h Oman recognizes Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new Supreme Leader
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 13% FLAT
7m Iran’s Araghchi in Islamabad for regional talks, nuclear deal odds stable
Likely NO
Iran military action against countries
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
9m Drone explosion in Lebanon kills Israeli soldier, tests ceasefire stability
✓ 251m Israel deploys Iron Dome to UAE amid Iranian missile, drone attacks
✓ 22h Israel intercepts drones, strikes southern Lebanon amid ceasefire uncertainty
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
15%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 15% FLAT
16m Iranian MP says Strait of Hormuz won’t return to pre-war conditions
3h Strait of Hormuz traffic nearly halted amid Iran-US blockades
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 3% FLAT
20m US-Iran nuclear deal prospects dim amid strike reports
Likely NO
Largest company by june
1 article
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in april 2026 100% FLAT
23m Hedge funds exit US tech stocks amid Iran conflict, Nvidia odds hold firm
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions in april
2 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
28m US military runs live Bitcoin node for national security testing
38m Bitcoin freeze proposal sparks debate on quantum risks, supply impact
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire extension
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
✓ 329m Iranian FM heads to Pakistan for US-Iran ceasefire talks
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
4 articles
Developing
15%
▼0¢
30m UN warns of medical supply shortages in Iran amid conflict
2h Strait of Hormuz remains locked down as Iran holds firm on blockade
2h Iran blocks free shipping in Strait of Hormuz, rejects return to normal
Likely NO
Next CEO of apple
1 article
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
37m Tim Cook backs John Ternus as Apple’s next CEO with foldable iPhone plans
Likely NO
Trump and putin meeting locations
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
45m Trump imposes oil blockade on Cuba amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
15%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 15% FLAT
⚡ U.S.-Iran diplomatic meetings 15% FLAT
✓ 248m Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon complicate diplomacy as Iran negotiates in Oman
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 3% FLAT
✓ 21h US-Iran nuclear deal talks falter as April 30 deadline nears
Likely NO
Iran peace deals
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
✓ 111h Starmer, Trump discuss Strait of Hormuz shipping amid UK naval speculation
Likely NO
Next prime minister of Israel
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
⚡ Netanyahu leaving office 6% FLAT
✓ 21h Lapid, Bennett to form joint party, challenge Netanyahu’s leadership
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high by date 3% FLAT
✓ 31h Strategy buys 34,164 Bitcoin for $2.5B, third-largest purchase
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting attendance
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action by april 30 100% FLAT
2h Iran uses ceasefire to rebuild military capacity, says senior lawmaker
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entering Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 8% FLAT
2h Israel halts plan for regime change in Iran, de-escalates efforts
Likely NO
Ethereum price in 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price hit in 2026 4% FLAT
2h Ethereum Foundation unstakes 17K ETH as it nears 70K milestone
Likely NO
Ethereum price hit in april
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h Ethereum Foundation unstakes $48.9M ETH, raising sell-off concerns
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30
3 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 14% FLAT
2h US and Israeli strikes on Iran halt nuclear deal talks
✓ 43h Iran’s Araqchi meets Oman’s Sultan to discuss US conflict, Hormuz security
✓ 33h Hengli Petrochemical denies Iran trade amid US sanctions tightening
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
2h Iran and Oman discuss regional security, Strait of Hormuz amid US talks speculation
Likely NO
Crude oil price by end of june
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 8% FLAT
2h US-Israeli attacks cut Iran steel output by 25-30%, impacting military production
Likely NO
Kharg island oil terminal attack
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
✓ 32h Israeli airstrikes hit southern Lebanon after evacuation warning
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
2h US-Iran ceasefire eases oil price pressure, odds of record high drop
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
3h Israeli raid in southern Lebanon causes injuries amid ceasefire period
Likely NO
Netanyahu's departure from power
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
✓ 33h Herzog favors plea deal over pardon for Netanyahu amid corruption trial
Likely NO
Crude oil predictions for june
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
3h Japan reroutes oil supply to bypass Strait of Hormuz amid Iranian disruptions