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18m Strait of Hormuz closure fails to impact Bitcoin prediction markets
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
18m Strait of Hormuz closure fails to impact Bitcoin prediction markets
▲ Trump posts week of april 6, 2023
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 18m)
NO ▲1¢
Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april
1 article
Developing
3%
▼1¢
✓ 325m Trump warns of potential explosion at Iran’s oil sites amid US blockade
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
Developing
3%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting dates 0% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 4% FLAT
✓ 230m Trump insists Iran talks by phone only, nuclear deal less likely by April 30
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
2 articles
Developing
14%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 100% FLAT
✓ 51h Iran sends written messages to US via Pakistan, signaling low-level diplomacy
2h US-Iran nuclear deal prospects dim amid strike reports
NO ▲1¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 8% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 2% FLAT
2h Iranian MP warns of possible war, urges public readiness
Likely NO
US military action in 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit China 0% FLAT
11m US military supply chain dependency on China raises conflict concerns
Likely NO
Iran military action against countries
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action by april 30 100% FLAT
⚡ Gulf state military action against Iran 3% FLAT
29m Israel deploys Iron Dome, IDF troops to UAE amid Iran conflict
✓ 232m Israeli soldier killed in Lebanon amid Israel-Hezbollah tensions
1h Drone explosion in Lebanon kills Israeli soldier, tests ceasefire stability
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
✓ 430m Iran’s foreign minister heads to Moscow as US-Iran ceasefire collapse looms
54m Iranian foreign minister meets Pakistan army chief amid US-Iran ceasefire talks
✓ 21h Iran’s Araghchi in Islamabad for regional talks, nuclear deal odds stable
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
33m EU approves $105B aid to Ukraine, reinforcing support amid US policy shift
✓ 552m Trump criticizes NATO allies, traders reassess US withdrawal question
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal
2 articles
Developing
57%
▼0¢
⚡ US blockade of hormuz 57% FLAT
33m Trump claims destruction of Iran’s navy, reinforces Hormuz blockade
55m Biden highlights US blockade success against Iran, Strait of Hormuz traffic impacted
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
✓ 241m Trump confirms calls with Putin, Zelensky on Ukraine de-escalation efforts
Likely NO
Netanyahu's departure
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
46m Netanyahu adviser Golan defects to Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party
Likely YES
Iranian regime fall
1 article
Developing
9%
⚡ Iran regime fall 0% FLAT
just now US-Israeli strikes, blockade strain Iran’s economy amid regime change speculation
Likely NO
Karoline leavitt's press briefing statements
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
13m Assassination attempt on Trump shifts focus to Leavitt’s next briefing
Likely NO
Netanyahu's tenure
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
14m Israel escalates Gaza operations, sidelining US-backed administration
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
17m Trump refuses to halt Iran military action, peace deal confidence shaken
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action by april 30 100% FLAT
19m Iran targets US infrastructure with precision strikes, complicating defense efforts
1h Video fuels speculation on Iran leadership change as rumors swirl about Mojtaba Khamenei
Likely NO
Fed chair confirmation predictions
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 2% FLAT
✓ 220m Tillis backs Warsh, clearing path for Fed chair confirmation
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit april
1 article
Developing
15%
▼0¢
21m Iranian MP: Strait of Hormuz won’t return to pre-war conditions
Likely NO
Netanyahu out of power
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu leaving office 6% FLAT
⚡ Netanyahu's departure from power 6% FLAT
✓ 422m Bennett and Lapid form alliance to challenge Netanyahu’s leadership
Likely NO
US escorts through hormuz
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ US escorts commercial ship through hormuz 4% FLAT
⚡ Iran successfully targets ships by april 30 69% FLAT
✓ 423m US Navy seizes oil, raising tensions in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Peru presidential election 2026 candidates
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
24m Sánchez leads by 24,000 votes in Peru election, runoff set against Fujimori
Likely NO
China's potential invasion of taiwan
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
47m US missile depletion impacts Taiwan defense strategy amid China tensions
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 2% FLAT
⚡ Iranian demands Trump agreement 6% FLAT
✓ 351m Trump’s Iran rhetoric sinks odds of oil sanction relief by April
Likely NO
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 2% FLAT
59m Trump suggests Iran war could end soon, but peace deal odds remain low
Likely NO
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 2% FLAT
⚡ Iran surrender enriched uranium stockpile 2% FLAT
1h Trump emphasizes preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons
Likely NO
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Senator Tillis drops opposition, clearing path for Warsh as Fed chair
Likely NO
Trump's end of military operations against Iran
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 8% FLAT
✓ 21h US-Iran ceasefire at risk as military buildup escalates tensions
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out of power 6% FLAT
⚡ Netanyahu's tenure 6% FLAT
1h Israel High Court orders enforcement of draft law, impacting Netanyahu coalition
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
1h Israeli Army strikes Hezbollah targets in Lebanon amid ceasefire speculation
1h Hezbollah attacks Israeli troops, breaking fragile ceasefire
Likely NO
Warships through the strait of hormuz
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Countries sending warships through hormuz 1% FLAT
1h IRGC intercepts vessels in Hormuz, UK warship odds unchanged
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump agreement
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 3% FLAT
1h US ramps up pressure on Iran with Operation Economic Fury
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 4% FLAT
1h Ahmad Vahidi’s influence grows as IRGC power shifts in Iran
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 2h ago
15%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 15% FLAT
2h Iranian MP says Strait of Hormuz won’t return to pre-war conditions
Likely NO
Largest company by june
1 article
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in april 2026 100% FLAT
2h Hedge funds exit US tech stocks amid Iran conflict, Nvidia odds hold firm
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions in april
2 articles
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
2h US military runs live Bitcoin node for national security testing
2h Bitcoin freeze proposal sparks debate on quantum risks, supply impact
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire extension
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
✓ 32h Iranian FM heads to Pakistan for US-Iran ceasefire talks
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 2h ago
15%
▼0¢
2h UN warns of medical supply shortages in Iran amid conflict
Likely NO
Next CEO of apple
1 article
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
2h Tim Cook backs John Ternus as Apple’s next CEO with foldable iPhone plans
Likely NO
Trump and putin meeting locations
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
2h Trump imposes oil blockade on Cuba amid US-Iran tensions