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20h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
20h Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
▼ Israel airspace closure
21% (was 31%, ▼10¢ in 20h)
YES ▲9¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 18h ago
22%
▲9¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 618h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
NO ▲3¢
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼3¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
2h Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $635M amid Middle East tensions
YES ▲3¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 1d ago
25%
▲3¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
✓ 31d Kevin Warsh confirmed to Federal Reserve Board, eyes Fed Chair role
YES ▲2¢
Israel strikes in 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▲2¢
⚡ Israel ceasefire extension 4% FLAT
4h Hezbollah escalates conflict with three attacks on Israeli forces
YES ▲2¢
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
1 article
· 13h ago
34%
▲2¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
13h UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
NO ▲2¢
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
· 14h ago
10%
▼2¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 514h US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 23h ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 723h Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
1d Strait of Hormuz closure boosts Bitcoin, silver appeal amid inflation fears
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 1d ago
3%
▼2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 81d Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
NO ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 4h ago
10%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 26% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 11% FLAT
4h Iran ‘frighteningly close’ to nuclear weapons, warns US energy secretary
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
· 11h ago
5%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
11h Iran conflict impacts energy markets as Trump heads to China for talks
YES ▲1¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 13h ago
18%
▲1¢
✓ 713h Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
21h Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
YES ▲1¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 14h ago
25%
▲1¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 3914h Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
YES ▲1¢
GameStop acquisition of ebay
1 article
· 14h ago
17%
▲1¢
✓ 214h GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
YES ▲1¢
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 15h ago
7%
▲1¢
✓ 215h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
YES ▲1¢
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
2 articles
· 15h ago
3%
▲1¢
✓ 315h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 217h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 17h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 717h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
YES ▲1¢
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 17h ago
96%
▲1¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 417h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 219h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 20h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
20h Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit
4 articles
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
✓ 223m Ship seized off UAE coast, heading toward Iran amid regional tensions
13h Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
✓ 319h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 10% FLAT
28m Israel strikes Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
13h Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
16h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
2 articles
· 2h ago
38%
▼0¢
2h Wes Streeting prepares to challenge Keir Starmer amid Labour Party turmoil
✓ 621h Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 74h Solana drops 5%, Bitcoin below $80K amid US-China tensions over Taiwan
Likely NO
Trump project freedom restart dates
1 article
· 6h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 47% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
6h Iran deploys submarines to Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
2 articles
· 7h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
7h US embargo on Hormuz Strait impacts Cuba’s energy supply
12h Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
· 14h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
✓ 414h Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 321h Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 20h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
20h US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 20h ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 220h Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
✓ 31d US inflation data dims Fed rate cut hopes amid Iran conflict
Likely YES
Trump's xi summit attendance
1 article
· 10h ago
8%
✓ 810h Melania Trump confirmed at Trump-Xi summit in China
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 15h ago
56%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
15h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 17h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 217h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 417h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 17h ago
5%
▼0¢
17h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
✓ 21d Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, impacts WTI Crude pricing
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 23h ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 323h Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 1d ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 61d Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation