Prediction Markets

N▲1

2h

US blocks Iraq dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias

Y↑

4h

Iran Revolutionary Guards warn of ‘silent battlefield’ amid ceasefire doubts

N▲1

6h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifts focus to diplomacy

N▲1

7h

US blocks Iraq dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias: WSJ

N↑

✓ 211m

Iran seizes two vessels, maintains control in Persian Gulf

Y↑

1h

Iran war disrupts global oil supply, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts markets

Y↑

✓ 36h

Trump claims Iran is financially collapsing, markets remain skeptical

Y↑

7h

Iran faces oil shut-ins in 15 days amid sanctions, war damage

Y↑

11h

Iran shifts to military-security governance amid rising instability risks

N↑

17m

Trump claims Iran “collapsing financially” amid US naval blockade

N↑

17m

Iran maps Persian Gulf undersea cables, raising cyber threat concerns

Y↑

1h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, but formal peace deal remains unlikely

N↑

1h

Iranian President’s praise for Revolutionary Guard dims ceasefire hopes by April 30

N▲1

✓ 32h

IRGC gunboat attacks container ship off Oman amid ceasefire extension

Y↑

✓ 32h

UN chief sees Iran–US ceasefire extension as diplomatic opportunity

N↑

3h

Iran ready to negotiate if US lifts naval blockade, market odds drop

N▲1

✓ 43h

Iran open to talks if US lifts blockade, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely

N↑

4h

Iran rejects ceasefire extension, US blames Mojtaba Khamenei

N▲1

✓ 115h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, naval blockade remains

N▲1

✓ 25h

Iran ready to strike as US ceasefire odds fall

N▲1

✓ 25h

Iran rejects US talks, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely

N▲1

6h

Trump cites Iran’s cash crunch amid delayed military salaries

N▲1

7h

US-Iran compromise deal seen as inevitable despite market skepticism

N▲1

✓ 27h

Iran calls US blockade an ‘act of war’ as ceasefire chances dwindle

N▲1

8h

CIA operatives killed in Mexico amid Iran ceasefire doubts

N↑

9h

Rumors of coup attempt in Iran highlight factional divides in Tehran

Y↑

✓ 39h

Oil prices dip amid potential US-Iran ceasefire extension

Y↑

9h

White House claims victory in Operation Epic Fury, market skeptical of April 30 end

N▲2

✓ 310h

Strait of Hormuz blockade escalates US-Iran tensions, disrupts energy supply

N▲2

10h

Pakistan’s diplomatic push impacts US-Iran ceasefire odds as deadline nears

N▲5

11h

Military planners meet in London to discuss reopening Strait of Hormuz

N▲8

12h

Iran cancels talks in Pakistan, escalating US tensions

N▲8

✓ 512h

Pakistan thanks Trump for US-Iran ceasefire extension amid market caution

Y↑

✓ 2113h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire, cites fractured Iranian government

Y↑

13h

US-Iran ceasefire odds slip as military operations continue

N↑

1h

Crypto market hit by $415M liquidation wave amid US-Iran tensions

Y↑

1h

Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination boosts Bitcoin sentiment amid crypto holdings disclosure

Y↑

✓ 22h

Russia’s State Duma passes crypto bill, Bitcoin demand may rise

N▲4

4h

BlackRock buys $900M in Bitcoin, boosting April 2026 $80K odds

Y▲5

✓ 26h

Bitcoin spot ETF inflows hit $11.8M amid geopolitical stabilization

Y▲12

✓ 48h

Bitcoin surges past $77K as $40M in shorts liquidated amid US-Iran tensions

Y▲23

9h

Goldman Sachs files for Bitcoin Premium Income ETF amid market volatility

Y▲23

10h

Strategy makes 3rd-largest BTC purchase with $1.1B acquisition

Y▲32

11h

Bitcoin falls below $75,500 amid US-Iran tensions

Y▲32

11h

Bitcoin exchange reserves hit lowest since 2017, institutional interest grows

Y▲29

✓ 213h

North Korea’s Lazarus Group launders $290M in crypto via Ethereum, Bitcoin

Y▲31

14h

UAE becomes sixth-largest sovereign Bitcoin holder with $900M investment

N↑

4h

Trump urges Fed nominee Warsh to cut rates despite low market confidence

Y↑

9h

Kevin Warsh calls for regime change at Fed, eyes rate cuts

N↑

✓ 210h

Warsh’s Senate testimony boosts US 10Y yields, dims Fed rate cut hopes