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3h James Comey indicted again over Instagram post allegedly threatening Trump
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
3h James Comey indicted again over Instagram post allegedly threatening Trump
▼ Zelenskyy and putin meeting locations
7% (was 15%, ▼8¢ in 3h)
NO ▲3¢
James comey arrest predictions
1 article
Developing
7%
▼3¢
1h James Comey indicted for threats against Trump via Instagram post
NO ▲2¢
Crude oil price by end of june
1 article
· 2h ago
63%
▼2¢
2h US-Iran tensions boost crude prices, lift Sinopec and CNOOC earnings
YES ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions in april
2 articles
Developing
16%
▲1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 15% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions by 2026 5% FLAT
28m Bitcoin transaction volume surpasses Visa, Mastercard in 2025
3h Bitcoin hits $77,000 as Fed decision looms, Trump eyes Hormuz blockade
YES ▲1¢
Bitcoin price targets
7 articles
Developing
16%
▲1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions by 2026 5% FLAT
45m Bitcoin spot ETFs see $89.6M outflow, BlackRock leads with $112M
1h Bitcoin ETFs see $89.7M outflow, BlackRock’s IBIT leads with $112M
2h XRP ETFs see $2.2M inflows as Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs face outflows
NO ▲1¢
Starmer out
1 article
· 3h ago
66%
▼1¢
3h UK parliament votes against inquiry into PM Starmer over Mandelson scandal
NO ▲1¢
Fed decision april and june
1 article
· 4h ago
86%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed decisions in june and july 4% FLAT
4h Australia inflation amid Iran war oil shock, rate hike likely
NO ▲1¢
Gangwon province governor election
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼1¢
5h Kim Jong UN endorses troops’ suicide to avoid capture, backs Russia in Ukraine war
NO ▲1¢
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼1¢
✓ 25h US silence on Iran school strike raises strategic questions
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting by date
2 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ US x Iran ceasefire extensions 0% FLAT
2m Trump rejects Tehran’s plea, calls Iran in ‘state of collapse’
✓ 65h Trump plans extended Iran blockade, imposes new sanctions
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
23m US Treasury yields climb as Fed meeting nears amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
3 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
27m Japan’s PM engages with Iran for safe Strait of Hormuz passage
1h Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed, deepening global supply chain disruptions
5h Panama Canal fees hit $4M as Hormuz blockade reroutes shipping traffic
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 0% FLAT
✓ 232m Mojtaba Khamenei halts US talks, raising focus on Iran leadership change
1h Ali Larijani assassinated amid US-Israeli strikes, Iran regime stability in question
3h Iranian escalation fears coincide with US-Iran ceasefire odds collapse
Likely NO
Fed decisions in june and july
2 articles
Developing
86%
▼0¢
35m Lloyds profits jump 33% on higher rates as BOE holds steady
1h Iran conflict de-escalation stabilizes inflation expectations, Fed rate cut unlikely
Likely NO
Iran uranium stockpile surrender
2 articles
Developing
30%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's visits to pakistan 6% FLAT
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 1% FLAT
38m Trump cancels delegations, rejects Iran proposal amid uranium talks limbo
48m Iran weighs Trump’s negotiation proposal, ceasefire unlikely by April 30
Likely NO
US recession 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
41m Oil supply disruption raises US recession risk for 2026
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions
5 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Israel strikes southern Lebanon despite nominal ceasefire, tensions rise
1h Israel destroys major Hezbollah tunnel in Lebanon, ceasefire prospects dim
2h Judges deny Netanyahu delay request in corruption trial
Likely NO
Ethereum price in 2026
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h Fenbushi Capital moves $7.1M ETH from AAVE to Binance after exploit
3h Bitmine buys 45,000 ETH for $95.3M, holding 4.1% of total supply
Likely NO
Trump's blockade of hormuz announcement
1 article
Developing
16%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 16% FLAT
✓ 31h Trump prepares for extended Hormuz blockade, dampening quick resolution hopes
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
4 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h TotalEnergies warns of tighter oil supply as Strait of Hormuz closes
1h Qatar implements business relief as Iran war impacts regional economy
6h White House envoy to meet Iranian officials in Islamabad amid tensions
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
2h Trump declares military victory over Iran, reducing strike likelihood
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 3% FLAT
2h US blockade halts Iranian sea trade, Strait of Hormuz traffic stalls
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h Russian strikes kill 21 in Ukraine on Chernobyl anniversary
Likely NO
Military action against Iran by april 30
2 articles
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
3h GCC summit in Saudi Arabia focuses on Iranian missile threat
✓ 23h Pentagon may downplay US missile shortage severity, impacting Iran conflict bets
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
3h Lebanon PM condemns Israel for ‘war crimes’ after attack kills 3 rescue workers
Likely NO
Netanyahu's departure
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h HRW accuses Israel of war crimes over Golan Heights settlements
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns by may 31
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
4h Trump calls for Jimmy Kimmel’s firing; FCC reviews Disney licenses