Ethereum active addresses hit record as price remains 50% below 2025 peak

Ethereum’s active addresses have reached a record of roughly 587,000 on a 100-day SMA, yet the price sits over 50-60% below its 2025 peak. The market for Ethereum to reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026, is at 4% YES.

## Market reaction

The rise in active addresses points to growing on-chain usage even as price lags, a gap some interpret as Ethereum being undervalued. The market for Ethereum to reach $4,000 in April 2026 reflects this, showing an increased likelihood of hitting that target. The odds of Ethereum reaching $10,000 by the end of 2026 remain at 4%, unchanged from last week.

## Why it matters

Ethereum’s long-term price predictions show minimal movement. The December 31 markets are static, each priced at 4% YES, with 246 days left until resolution. The term structure hasn’t shifted, meaning traders aren’t pricing in near-term changes.

Volumes tell the same story. Only $400 of actual USDC has been traded over the past 24 hours, with a face value of $8,663. It takes $1,446 to move the December 31 market by 5 percentage points, which means liquidity is thin and any substantial order could cause sharp price swings.

## What to watch

Record-high active addresses could be a bullish signal, but the market is skeptical. At a price of 4¢, a YES share pays $1 if Ethereum reaches $10,000 by the end of 2026, a 25x return. That bet requires believing network activity will eventually translate into price appreciation.

Watch for statements from Vitalik Buterin or protocol upgrades that could shift sentiment. Major ecosystem developments or technical improvements would be the most likely catalysts for repricing.

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