Prediction Markets

Y▲3

1h

Iran tensions, stock bubble fears drive US recession odds by 2026

N▲2

✓ 25h

US blocks Iraq dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias

N▲1

7h

Iran Revolutionary Guards warn of ‘silent battlefield’ amid ceasefire doubts

N▲2

9h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifts focus to diplomacy

N▲2

10h

US blocks Iraq dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias: WSJ

Y▲1

1h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, Bitcoin target $80K odds rise

Y▲5

2h

Bitcoin hits $78K after US-Iran ceasefire extension

Y▲6

3h

Crypto market hit by $415M liquidation wave amid US-Iran tensions

Y▲6

4h

Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination boosts Bitcoin sentiment amid crypto holdings disclosure

Y▲6

✓ 35h

Russia’s State Duma passes crypto bill, Bitcoin demand may rise

Y▲2

7h

BlackRock buys $900M in Bitcoin, boosting April 2026 $80K odds

Y▲11

✓ 29h

Bitcoin spot ETF inflows hit $11.8M amid geopolitical stabilization

Y▲18

✓ 410h

Bitcoin surges past $77K as $40M in shorts liquidated amid US-Iran tensions

Y▲29

12h

Goldman Sachs files for Bitcoin Premium Income ETF amid market volatility

Y▲29

13h

Strategy makes 3rd-largest BTC purchase with $1.1B acquisition

N▲1

✓ 22h

US-Iran talks collapse over uranium, ceasefire deal by April 30 unlikely

N▲1

✓ 83h

Iran seizes two vessels, maintains control in Persian Gulf

N▲1

4h

Iran war disrupts global oil supply, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts markets

N▲1

✓ 39h

Trump claims Iran is financially collapsing, markets remain skeptical

N▲1

10h

Iran faces oil shut-ins in 15 days amid sanctions, war damage

Y↑

1m

US and Iran near nuclear framework, ceasefire odds remain low

N↑

52m

Iran drone attacks close Strait of Hormuz, doubling Dutch TTF gas prices

N▲1

1h

Iran calls US naval blockade an “act of war,” demands forceful response

N▲1

2h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifting focus to diplomacy

N▲1

2h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire as Tehran showcases missiles in parade

N▲1

3h

Trump claims Iran “collapsing financially” amid US naval blockade

N▲1

3h

Iran maps Persian Gulf undersea cables, raising cyber threat concerns

N▲1

4h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, but formal peace deal remains unlikely

N▲1

4h

Iranian President’s praise for Revolutionary Guard dims ceasefire hopes by April 30

N▲2

✓ 95h

IRGC gunboat attacks container ship off Oman amid ceasefire extension

N▲1

✓ 65h

UN chief sees Iran–US ceasefire extension as diplomatic opportunity

N▲1

6h

Iran ready to negotiate if US lifts naval blockade, market odds drop

N▲2

✓ 46h

Iran open to talks if US lifts blockade, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely

N▲1

✓ 27h

Iran rejects ceasefire extension, US blames Mojtaba Khamenei

N▲2

✓ 148h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, naval blockade remains

N▲2

✓ 28h

Iran ready to strike as US ceasefire odds fall

N▲2

✓ 28h

Iran rejects US talks, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely

N▲2

9h

Trump cites Iran’s cash crunch amid delayed military salaries

N▲2

10h

US-Iran compromise deal seen as inevitable despite market skepticism

N▲2

✓ 210h

Iran calls US blockade an ‘act of war’ as ceasefire chances dwindle

N▲2

11h

CIA operatives killed in Mexico amid Iran ceasefire doubts

N▲1

12h

Rumors of coup attempt in Iran highlight factional divides in Tehran

N▲1

✓ 312h

Oil prices dip amid potential US-Iran ceasefire extension

N▲1

12h

White House claims victory in Operation Epic Fury, market skeptical of April 30 end

N▲3

✓ 313h

Strait of Hormuz blockade escalates US-Iran tensions, disrupts energy supply

N▲3

13h

Pakistan’s diplomatic push impacts US-Iran ceasefire odds as deadline nears

N▲6

14h

Military planners meet in London to discuss reopening Strait of Hormuz

N↑

7h

Trump urges Fed nominee Warsh to cut rates despite low market confidence

Y↑

12h

Kevin Warsh calls for regime change at Fed, eyes rate cuts

N↑

✓ 213h

Warsh’s Senate testimony boosts US 10Y yields, dims Fed rate cut hopes