The Republican Party is having a very public argument with itself over whether it can actually pass another massive budget bill, and the answer you get depends entirely on which chamber of Congress you’re standing in.

On one side: former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who on June 9 declared with characteristic bluntness that a third reconciliation bill simply isn’t happening. On the other: House Speaker Mike Johnson, who is trying to rally his conference to push a sweeping legislative package through “in the coming weeks.” For crypto markets hoping for regulatory clarity out of Washington, this internal standoff matters more than it might seem at first glance.

The Senate says no, the House says go

McConnell’s assessment was about as definitive as congressional forecasts get.

“It is safe to conclude there will not be another reconciliation bill.”

Senator Susan Collins echoed that sentiment, adding weight to the view that the Senate simply doesn’t have the appetite for another round of party-line legislating. For those unfamiliar with the mechanics: reconciliation is a procedural tool that lets Congress pass certain budget-related bills with a simple majority, bypassing the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold.

The problem is that Republicans hold a razor-thin House majority. Even a couple of defectors can sink the whole effort.

Despite the Senate skepticism, Johnson is pressing forward with plans for a substantial package that would address defense spending, health care reforms, energy policy, and spending reductions across various government programs. Vice President JD Vance is reportedly leading White House coordination on the effort. The proposed bill would specifically target fraud, waste, and abuse, while also including defense outlays aimed at confronting threats from Iran.

Where this leaves crypto

During earlier discussions, crypto regulation was floated as a potential inclusion in this third package. Recent reports indicate those crypto provisions are likely absent from the current legislative push.

Market structure legislation for digital assets has been progressing through separate channels, with standalone bills working their way through committees. Without a reconciliation vehicle, crypto regulation reverts to the slower path of regular legislative order, competing for floor time with every other priority on the congressional calendar.

What this means for investors

For crypto specifically, the near-term read is straightforward: don’t expect legislative clarity from Washington anytime soon. The absence of digital asset provisions from the reconciliation package means crypto traders will need to navigate based on broader economic signals and existing regulatory actions from agencies like the SEC and CFTC rather than new congressional mandates.

The wildcard is timing relative to the approaching August recess. Johnson’s push to move quickly suggests the House leadership recognizes that political capital has an expiration date. This proposed package would mark the third instance of utilizing reconciliation under Republican control, following a major bill in 2025 and a pending immigration enforcement funding measure.