Ripple CEO sees Clarity Act passing by May, stablecoin yield dispute near resolution

Ripple’s CEO suggests the Clarity Act could pass by May, with the stablecoin yield dispute nearing resolution, but the Polymarket contract for XRP reaching $2.60 in April sits at just 0.5% YES.

Market reaction

The market for XRP hitting $2.60 in April shows little optimism. Current odds are 0.5% YES, unchanged over the week. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete Senate actions before adjusting positions.

The XRP price on April 13 market, by contrast, is at 100% YES for a price less than $0.90. Traders don’t expect regulatory developments to move XRP’s price within that short a window. The stablecoin yield compromise, if resolved, looks more like a longer-term catalyst than a near-term one.

Why it matters

Total daily volume for the $2.60 market is $19,130 in face value but just $134 in actual USDC. The book is thin: $92 is enough to move the price by five points. That illiquidity means even small trades can cause outsized swings, and most traders are clearly unwilling to commit without clearer legislative progress.

What to watch

The Clarity Act’s passage would change the regulatory framework for crypto in ways that could affect XRP pricing over longer horizons. At 0.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if XRP hits $2.60 in April, a 200x return. That bet requires believing in a rapid sequence of favorable regulatory and market moves within weeks.

Track the Senate Banking Committee’s next steps on the Clarity Act, particularly any markup date announcements. Tim Scott’s role on the committee matters, as do any shifts in position from major crypto stakeholders.

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