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Russia and Egypt are pushing for Middle East peace efforts, affecting the US-Iran ceasefire market. Odds for an April 30 ceasefire dropped to 23.5% YES from 40% yesterday.
April 7 odds are low at 1.8% YES, showing doubt about quick progress. April 15 and April 30 odds have risen slightly, but not enough to suggest an imminent resolution. A significant shift is expected between April 30 and May 31, with a 22-point increase indicating potential developments.
With $535,930 in USDC traded, market depth varies. It requires $25,832 to shift April 7 odds by five points, and $31,750 for April 30. The largest change was a 4-point drop in the May 31 market, indicating stability unless major news breaks.
For traders, Russian and Egyptian backing for dialogue might be positive, but the source’s lower credibility limits impact. At 23.5¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs, offering a potential 4.3x return. This bet requires belief in rapid diplomatic progress.
Watch for statements from key figures like Trump, Rubio, or intermediaries like Oman and Qatar. Any sign of talks or softened rhetoric could shift the market.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.8% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 23.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 45.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 57.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES
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