Iran’s Foreign Minister heads to Pakistan for US talks: FT

Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi is traveling to Pakistan for talks with the US. The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting on April 24 are at 1% YES, down from 10% a day ago.

The April 24 meeting odds have collapsed, but the April 26 market sits at 10% YES, suggesting traders expect any progress to come later. The Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market dropped to 59.5% YES from 77% yesterday, a sharp move that signals skepticism about a quick resolution.

The US-Iran ceasefire market remains at 100% YES for April 21, but that contract doesn’t capture the broader diplomatic timeline. Pakistan hosted the prior Islamabad Talks and is positioned as a neutral broker for this round.

Trading volume is modest. The diplomatic meeting dates market has $473 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours, with a $54 spread needed to move the odds 5 points. Liquidity is thin, so any substantial news could cause sharp swings.

A YES share for the April 24 meeting is priced at 9¢, which would pay 11.11x on a successful outcome. But without concrete commitments from either side, those odds look more hopeful than realistic. Watch for Vice President JD Vance’s arrival in Islamabad and any statements from Pakistani officials, both of which would be direct signals of whether real negotiations are taking shape.