Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi is traveling to Pakistan for talks with the US. The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting on April 24 are at
The April 24 meeting odds have collapsed, but the April 26 market sits at
The US-Iran ceasefire market remains at 100% YES for April 21, but that contract doesn’t capture the broader diplomatic timeline. Pakistan hosted the prior Islamabad Talks and is positioned as a neutral broker for this round.
Trading volume is modest. The diplomatic meeting dates market has $473 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours, with a $54 spread needed to move the odds 5 points. Liquidity is thin, so any substantial news could cause sharp swings.
A YES share for the April 24 meeting is priced at 9¢, which would pay
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