Russia offers China energy supplies as Iran war disrupts Strait of Hormuz

Russia has offered to supply China with energy amid the Iran war, which has disrupted oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The Polymarket contract for crude oil hitting $90 by end of June sits at 15% YES.

Market reaction

The Strait of Hormuz closed on March 4, cutting off a large share of global oil and LNG transit and hitting China’s imports hard. Russia’s offer to route energy supplies through alternatives like the Northern Sea Route is a direct response to that chokepoint going offline. Odds on oil reaching $90 by end of June have jumped as traders price in the severity of the supply disruption.

Why it matters

Russia is trying to fill the gap left by blocked Middle Eastern flows, and the 15% YES price on the crude oil June contract reflects real money behind the expectation that prices stay elevated. The US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Locations market is at 3% YES, suggesting traders see little chance of a near-term diplomatic resolution. Russia supplying China deepens their energy relationship but also concentrates China’s import risk on a single alternative supplier.

What to watch

Revised oil price forecasts from major banks could shift sentiment on the crude oil contract. OPEC+ output decisions are the other variable: any production increase to compensate for Hormuz disruptions would put downward pressure on the $90 target, while holding steady would reinforce the current pricing.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.