Russia offers oil relief as US blocks Iran exports

Russia offered to replace Iran’s blocked oil exports during the ongoing US military blockade of Iranian ports. The Polymarket contract on whether Trump will announce the blockade is lifted by May 31 moved to 83.5% YES, up from 79% yesterday.

Russia’s offer gives China and other buyers an alternative supply source, which could reduce pressure on the US to end the blockade. The May 31 market prices in a high probability of resolution at 83.5%, while the April 19 market sits at just 25% YES. Traders clearly doubt a near-term resolution but expect one within the next month and a half.

Russian oil availability would ease supply concerns and lower the probability of crude oil prices hitting $90 by June. It also reduces the chance of WTI crude reaching $160 in April, since the supply gap from Iran’s blocked exports would shrink.

Trading volume across the blockade markets is at $30,880 in USDC. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 6-point spike in the April 19 market, suggesting traders are reacting to short-term developments around Russia’s offer.

Russia’s move signals potential de-escalation for oil buyers but says nothing about a US policy shift. At 84¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade is lifted by May 31, a 1.19x return. That bet assumes easing within 46 days, which depends on US diplomatic moves and China’s response to Russia’s supply offer.

Watch for Trump statements on Truth Social and any changes in US military posture in the Strait of Hormuz. New sanctions or a shift in rhetoric could move these contracts quickly.

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