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Russia violated the ceasefire by launching military attacks in Ukraine. The market for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, sits at
The ceasefire odds market, Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, shows minimal movement despite the breach. Traders were already pessimistic about a lasting peace. The largest price move over the past 24 hours was a 1-point spike, and the market’s shallow depth of $15,876 to move 5 percentage points means it’s vulnerable to significant swings from large trades.
Volume is $68,465 in face value but only $7,405 in actual USDC, a reminder that headline numbers can be misleading. With 79 days left until resolution, the market reflects deep skepticism about diplomatic progress, especially given ongoing accusations from both sides.
The ceasefire breach fits a pattern of persistent hostilities and entrenched positions, with no sign of de-escalation. At the current 10.5% YES, a share costs 11¢ and pays $1 if a ceasefire is reached by June 30, an 8.1x return. To justify buying YES, you’d need to believe in a dramatic shift toward diplomacy within the next 79 days.
Watch for announcements of resumed negotiations or significant military pullbacks. A joint statement from Putin and Zelenskyy or involvement from an international mediator could shift odds substantially.
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