S&P affirms US ‘AA+/A-1+’ sovereign ratings with stable outlook as debt nears 100% of GDP
The rating agency kept its long-standing post-downgrade assessment intact while flagging rising interest costs and aging demographics as the slow-burn fiscal risks to watch.
The United States still has a creditworthy report card, just not a perfect one. On August 18, 2025, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its long-term sovereign credit rating for the US at ‘AA+’ and its short-term rating at ‘A-1+’, both carrying a stable outlook.
The stable designation signals that S&P sees a low probability of a downgrade in the near term.
What S&P actually said
The affirmation rests on a few pillars: the resilience of the US economy, what S&P views as effective monetary policy management, and the recent $5 trillion increase to the federal debt ceiling.
On the revenue side, S&P indicated it expects tariff income to help cushion the fiscal impact of recent legislative changes tied to tax and spending policy.
S&P projected that net general government debt will approach 100% of GDP, driven by rising interest expenses and the cost of supporting an aging population.
Context: this rating has a history
The US has held the ‘AA+’ rating since August 2011, when S&P made the then-shocking decision to strip the country of its ‘AAA’ designation. That downgrade was historic: the first time a major rating agency had ever removed the US from the top tier.
Moody’s, the other major rating agency, made its own move earlier in 2025, downgrading the US from ‘Aaa’ to ‘Aa1’, which is its equivalent of the S&P ‘AA+’ level.
What this means for markets and digital assets
For US Treasury markets, a stable rating affirmation generally reduces the risk of sudden yield spikes that come from credit concern. A downgrade or negative outlook shift can trigger volatility in bond prices, which then ripples through nearly every other asset class.
The debt ceiling raise of $5 trillion is also relevant here. Debt ceiling standoffs historically inject sharp uncertainty into markets. With the ceiling now lifted, that particular source of near-term disruption is off the table.
The 2022 rate hiking cycle was a primary catalyst for the bear market in crypto that followed. A fiscal outlook that keeps monetary policy under pressure is not a neutral backdrop for digital assets, even if the immediate rating affirmation reads as stabilizing.