Strait of Hormuz closure spikes gas prices, April WTI contract hits 15¢ per YES share

Gas prices have spiked over $4 per gallon, with the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April pricing at 15¢ per YES share following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a major supply disruption.

Market reaction

The April $160 WTI contract has 15 days remaining. The Strait of Hormuz blockade has pushed bullish sentiment sharply higher, with traders pricing in potentially record crude levels. The crude oil price prediction for June, targeting $90, has 76 days left and reflects expectations that prices will stay elevated into the summer if the conflict and supply disruptions continue.

Trade volume remains negligible across both contracts, with no significant moves in the past 24 hours. The order book is thin, meaning a single large order could move prices substantially. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete developments before committing capital.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz closure is a direct chokepoint for global oil supply, and the resulting price pressure feeds straight into US gasoline costs already above $4. At 15¢ per YES share, the April $160 contract pays $1 if WTI reaches that level, a 6.67x return. For crude to hit $90 by June, the blockade and absence of diplomatic progress would need to persist through the summer.

What to watch

OPEC+ statements on production adjustments and any movement in the US-Iran diplomatic standoff are the two variables that matter most. Any reopening of the Strait or a diplomatic breakthrough could collapse the current bullish pricing quickly.

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