Strait of Hormuz closure spikes oil prices amid US-Iran conflict

The ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices up. The market for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 currently sits at 1.6% YES.

Market reaction

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about supply disruptions. Odds for crude oil hitting its all-time high have barely moved over the past week, staying flat despite the escalating conflict. The market’s face value trades at $100,828 per day, but actual USDC volume is only $2,513, showing traders are largely sitting this one out. A $695 investment can shift the odds by five percentage points, which tells you how thin the order book is.

Why it matters

The odds haven’t jumped, but the market’s low depth means any significant news could move them fast. Traders are watching for potential catalysts like a complete Iranian export ban or OPEC+ emergency production cuts, either of which could drive prices higher. On the other side, resumed peace talks or increased production from other oil-producing nations could push odds down.

What to watch

Oil prices are already hovering near $90–109 per barrel. At 2¢, a YES share pays $1 if crude prices exceed the previous $120 high by April 30, a potential 50x return. To justify this bet, you’d need to believe in a major escalation or supply shock within the next six days.

Key things to track: OPEC+ announcements, new sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and any statements from US or Iranian leadership. With only a few days left until the market resolves, new developments could swing the odds sharply.

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