Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite Iran’s reopening announcement

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and the market for traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 0% YES.

Market reaction

Strait of Hormuz traffic is minimal despite Iran’s announcement to reopen, with no significant increase in ship arrivals. Traders have priced the normalization market at 0% YES, expecting persistent disruptions through month-end. The Strait of Hormuz market has seen zero trading activity in the past 24 hours, consistent with a settled consensus on continued closure.

The market for crude oil hitting $90 by the end of June is directly tied to these supply constraints. The market for military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 0.1% YES, with $695 in actual USDC traded, indicating traders see near-zero probability of UK-led military strikes in the immediate term.

Why it matters

Ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is straining global oil supply logistics. Jet fuel price spikes from the disruption are hitting airlines’ summer scheduling. With crude supply constrained and no visible progress toward reopening, energy costs remain elevated.

What to watch

At 0% YES, a YES share pays $1 if the market resolves positively, but that would require a dramatic reversal in the next 24 hours. Monitor IMF Portwatch for shipping data updates and any shifts in US-Iranian diplomatic relations. Statements from Secretary Hegseth or Mohammadreza Rezaei Kouchi could signal movement in the standoff.

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