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Tehran has activated its air defenses during ongoing conflict, raising questions about the ceasefire’s durability. The probability of Iranian military action by April 30 is at 100% YES, while the likelihood of another country conducting military action against Iran sits at
Market reaction
The Iran military action by April 30 market is at 100% YES across all sub-markets, meaning traders treat Iranian action within the next week as a certainty. The another country military action against Iran market has dipped from 6% to
In the Iranian regime fall market, odds have risen to
Why it matters
Daily USDC volume in the Iranian regime fall market is $30,969, with $26,254 in order book depth required to move the price 5 percentage points, a relatively thick market. The market for another country’s military action against Iran is much thinner: only $764 is needed to move the price 5 percentage points, making it susceptible to large single trades.
What to watch
With Iranian military action by April 30 fully priced in, the regime fall market is where the remaining uncertainty sits. A YES share at 8.5¢ pays $1 if the regime collapses by June 30, an 11.76x return. That bet requires anticipating significant internal destabilization or leadership changes within two months.
Key indicators to track: confirmed hostile engagements or retaliatory actions from Tehran, announcements from the Iranian military or US Department of Defense, and moves by regional actors like Israel or Saudi Arabia. The air defense activation itself could signal a breach or testing of the ceasefire, and the next few days should clarify whether this tips into broader escalation.
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