IDF’s Jonathan Conricus claims Tehran’s frustration at the negotiation table signals a lack of control. The odds for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sit at 7.5% YES, down from 20% a day ago.
Conricus’s statement implies a diplomatic stalemate, and several related markets have moved accordingly. The US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Locations market shows odds for no qualifying meeting by June 30 jumping to 18.1% YES, up from 8% yesterday. The Israel-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market is at 2.0% YES for an April 30 resolution.
The US-Iran peace deal market saw $852,860 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. It takes $30,914 to move the market 5 points, which means small trades won’t shift the price much. The largest recent move was a 2-point drop.
Tehran’s frustration could suggest a tactical edge for the US, but it also makes a near-term deal less likely. A YES position on the permanent peace deal by April 30 now pays 13.3x at current odds, a bet that requires a rapid diplomatic breakthrough that looks increasingly unlikely given the current trajectory.
Watch for announcements from US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. A statement from either involving new concessions or a breakthrough in talks could shift odds quickly.
