Iran denies internal discord while Trump confesses to dropping a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The odds for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 fell to 6.5% YES, down from 20% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 dropped sharply. The May 31 odds sit at 32% YES, down from 44% yesterday. The June 30 sub-market shows 48.5% likelihood. The 21-point gap between April 30 and May 31 suggests traders expect a potential catalyst in May.

Trump’s admission also hit the Iranian demands agreement market, now at 12% YES, showing little confidence in Trump meeting Iranian demands for sanctions relief this month.

Why it matters

Volume across these markets hit $852,860 in actual USDC traded over the past 24 hours. The peace deal market’s depth requires $30,914 to move just 5 points. The largest single move was a 5-point drop in the May 31 market at 4:47 AM.

Trump’s open admission makes this look like a genuine setback rather than noise. At 12¢, a YES share on Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands pays $1 if resolved, an 8.3x return. Traders betting on a rapid turnaround need to believe a major diplomatic breakthrough is days away.

What to watch

Any new statements from Trump or White House officials hinting at revived negotiations. A publicized meeting or a shift in rhetoric could move odds quickly.

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