Trump affirms Hormuz blockade to continue until Iran deal secured

Trump’s latest statement affirms that the Strait of Hormuz blockade will persist until a deal with Iran is secured. Odds for lifting the blockade by May 31, 2026, sit at 90.5% YES.

Markets barely moved, consistent with skepticism about any sudden breakthrough. The April 17 market remains at 5.7% YES. Traders have priced in continuation of the blockade. The April 19 market holds at 28.0% YES, a slight bump suggesting some traders expect movement within days.

These markets are thin. USDC volume over the last 24 hours is $33,928, and it takes only $1,085 to shift the April 17 market by 5 points. A single large order can swing prices. The biggest move was a 4-point drop at 3:18 AM, a sell-off that followed Trump’s comments.

Trump’s statement signals a firm stance and dampens hopes for a near-term deal. At 18¢, a YES share for the April 19 market pays $1 if the blockade lifts, a 5.6x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough. Given the thin volume and Trump’s tone, this looks more like noise than signal.

Watch for Trump’s next move or statements from Iranian officials. Any shift in rhetoric or confirmation of talks could move these markets fast.

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