President Trump is tying the fate of a US-Iran deal to a much broader diplomatic demand: that a slate of Muslim-majority nations establish formal relations with Israel.

On May 25, Trump posted on Truth Social that these countries must “simultaneously” sign the Abraham Accords as part of any agreement with Tehran. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are being pushed to lead the way, with Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan expected to follow.

The conference call that set it off

Two days before that Truth Social post, on May 23, Trump held a conference call with representatives from eight nations: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain. The message, by all accounts, was blunt. These countries should join the Abraham Accords “immediately.”

The UAE and Bahrain are already signatories. They normalized relations with Israel in 2020 during Trump’s first term, alongside Sudan and Morocco.

Saudi normalization with Israel has been a white whale of Middle Eastern diplomacy for years. Riyadh has historically conditioned any such deal on progress toward Palestinian statehood. Pakistan has long maintained that it would only recognize Israel after a Palestinian state is established. Turkey and Egypt already have diplomatic relations with Israel.

What’s actually happening with Iran

The Iran negotiations themselves are reportedly making significant progress. Key sticking points on the table include uranium disposal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes daily.

Pro-Israel factions in the US have offered varied responses to the bundling of the Abraham Accords expansion with the Iran deal.

Market reactions and what investors should watch

Oil prices have already declined in response to the advancing Iran negotiations. A deal with Iran that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and potentially eases sanctions would increase global oil supply.

Digital asset markets have shown little reaction to these developments. Despite the narrative that Bitcoin serves as a geopolitical hedge, the current episode suggests that traditional commodities, particularly oil, remain the primary vehicle through which investors express views on Middle Eastern geopolitics.