Trump wants Spain out of NATO for opposing the Iran war. The likelihood of a US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 remains at 0.1% YES.

This rhetoric from Trump may be symbolic bluster, but it has implications for the “Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?” market. The December 31, 2026 sub-market is where traders might see more movement, given Trump’s history with NATO. The April 30 contract sits at 0.1% YES, unchanged over the past week, which signals skepticism about immediate action.

The US withdrawal market sees $31,189 in face value daily, but actual USDC traded is just $163. It takes $1,807 to move the odds 5 points, a relatively thin market. Given the symbolic nature of the threat against Spain, traders are holding off on significant moves. The largest price change in the last 24 hours was a modest 0.9-point drop.

Why it matters: Trump’s NATO threats are familiar, but NATO has no formal mechanism to expel a member. The real question is whether this escalates toward actual withdrawal actions. At 0.1¢, buying YES for a US withdrawal by April 30 pays $1, a 10x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to expect a major shift in US policy within the next six days.

What to watch: Statements from NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and any formal actions from Trump. If internal discussions or troop movements signal a genuine shift, this market could move fast.

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