Trump’s cancellation of his Iran trip has pushed the odds of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 down to 6.5% YES, falling from 10% as diplomatic conditions deteriorate.
The Pahlavi entry market for June 30 is at 6.5% YES, requiring $7,632 to shift by 5 points. The December 31 market holds at 15.5% YES, suggesting traders expect conditions could improve later in the year.
The US-Iran permanent peace deal market by April 30 has collapsed to 2.6% YES, down from 10% a day ago. The May 31 market sits at 24.5% YES, and June 30 at 44.5% YES. That 22-point gap between April 30 and May 31 implies traders are pricing in a possible late-spring diplomatic window.
Volume is heavy. The US-Iran peace deal market has seen $854,504 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. Order book depth is thick too: $27,666 is needed to move the April 30 market by 5 points, pointing to serious capital and likely institutional positioning.
The cancellation fits a pattern of stalemate, with Trump’s rhetoric reading more as leverage than compromise. At 6.5¢, a YES on Pahlavi’s entry by June 30 pays $1, a 15.4x return. But that bet requires believing in a major diplomatic shift within 67 days.
Watch for Iranian Foreign Minister meetings or US diplomatic overtures. Any changes to the naval blockade or sanctions relief would move these markets fast.
