Trump says he turned down Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0.9% YES, unchanged from yesterday.

Market reaction

Traders show no response to Trump’s remarks, with odds for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April holding flat. The market’s face value trades at $55,851 daily, but actual USDC volume is just $487. That gap between notional and real volume points to very low conviction that oil reaches those levels.

The crude oil all-time high by April 30 market sits at 3.2% YES, also showing little movement.

Why it matters

Only $2,571 is needed to move the WTI Crude Oil market 5 points. A book that thin means any single order of moderate size could swing the odds, and the largest price move in the last 24 hours was a negligible blip caused by minor trades rather than any geopolitical signal.

Trump’s statement reads more as posturing than policy. At under 1¢ per YES share, the payout on an oil spike would be enormous if tensions actually escalate, but current volume suggests almost nobody is taking that bet.

What to watch

Any official announcements from OPEC+ or the EIA on production levels or strategic reserves could move these contracts more than rhetoric has. The April 30 expiration on the all-time high contract is the nearest deadline.

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