Trump claims Iran suspends nuclear program without US funds

Trump claims Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely without receiving any frozen U.S. funds. The probability of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 62.5% YES, up from 28% a week ago.

The market’s 8-point rise over the week tracks shifting trader sentiment as negotiations continue. Iranian oil sanction relief remains a sticking point, and Trump’s hardline stance makes a deal this month less likely. A $279 order can move the odds by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.

The US-Iran permanent peace deal odds for an April 22 resolution are at 38.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. The spread between April 22 and April 30 resolution dates suggests traders expect something to happen in late April. Trump’s announcement has pushed peace deal odds higher, but the absence of details on asset unfreezing or sanctions relief keeps prices low.

$711K in USDC has traded across the peace deal markets, which is real money on a resolution. Given Trump’s statement, though, the move from 12% to 14.5% could reverse quickly. Traders should weigh the likelihood of further hardline rhetoric pulling the market back down.

At 38.5% YES, buying shares pays $1 if a peace deal is reached by April 22, a potential 6.9x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe there’s a genuine shift in negotiations within the next 6 days.

Watch for Trump’s next moves on Truth Social or any formal announcements from Islamabad. The White House’s tone on sanctions and Trump’s follow-up statements will determine if these odds hold or slide.

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