Trump claims progress with Iran, hints at possible de-escalation path

Trump claimed significant progress with Iran, suggesting a possible path toward de-escalation. The permanent peace deal market for April 22, 2026, is at 25.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.

Market reaction

Trump’s comments pushed the April 22 peace deal odds slightly higher. The April 30 market sits at 42.5% YES, given the wider window for resolution. Longer-dated markets price in more confidence: May 31 at 58.0% and June 30 at 66.5% YES.

Why it matters

The ceasefire market reflects Trump’s uncertainty about extending the current pause. Odds for an end to the ceasefire by April 21 dropped to 8% YES, down from 30% a week ago. Traders see less risk of immediate escalation.

The permanent peace deal market trades $711,138 in USDC daily. The largest move was a 10-point drop in the May 31 market, where traders reassessed their expectations. Order book depth varies: $16,312 would move the April 22 market by 5 points, meaning a few large trades can still shift prices.

What to watch

Trump’s remarks hint at concessions from Iran that could lead to a lasting agreement. At 25.5¢, a YES share for a deal by April 22 pays $1, a 6.9x return if resolved. That bet only makes sense if you believe a formal announcement is imminent.

Watch for diplomatic developments and official statements from the Islamabad talks. Trump’s next move or a statement from mediators like Pakistan could move these markets sharply.

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