Trump claims Strait of Hormuz reopening with China’s cooperation

Trump posted on social media that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, claiming cooperation with China. The market for a US blockade lift announcement by May 31 is at 83.5% YES, up from 79% yesterday.

The tweet’s implied de-escalation moved several sub-markets. The April 19 market, which expires in four days, rose to 25% YES from 17%. The May 31 market jumped 4 points to 84% YES, with traders pricing in a clearer path to resolution.

Near-term markets remain skeptical. The April 17 market sits at 11.5% YES. The wide spread between April 19 (25%) and May 31 (84%) suggests traders expect an announcement only after extended negotiation, possibly tied to the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting.

Trading volume in the Hormuz blockade markets was $30,880 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The deepest liquidity is in the longer-term May 31 market, where $1,902 is needed to move the price 5 percentage points.

Trump’s post is a signal, but without official confirmations it remains speculative. At 84¢, a YES share for May 31 pays $1 if successful, a 1.2x return. The question is whether this tweet represents actual diplomatic progress or posturing.

Watch the upcoming Trump-Xi summit and statements from the U.S. Navy and Iranian officials. These will determine whether the blockade timeline accelerates or stalls.

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