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Trump continues negotiations despite Iran shooting down two US jets. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 1.1% YES, down from 12% last week.
Markets show skepticism about Trump’s diplomatic push. The April 7 market holds at 1.1% YES. The April 15 market sits at 6.5% YES, indicating slight optimism. The April 30 market shows more confidence, with odds at 17.5% YES.
Traders see little chance of an immediate resolution. A 19-point jump between April 30 and May 31 suggests expectations of a catalyst in May. The May 31 market stands at 36.5% YES.
Trading volumes highlight market activity. While face value exceeds $3.7M daily, only $431K in USDC changes hands. It takes $12,352 to move the April 7 market by 5 points, indicating it’s thin and vulnerable to large trades. The largest move was a 2-point spike on April 30, showing cautious optimism.
Trump’s diplomacy isn’t swaying markets yet. At 1.1¢, a YES share in the April 7 market offers a 91x return if resolved — a high-risk bet on quick diplomatic progress. Traders need signs of mediator involvement or formal talks to invest.
Watch for potential mediators like the Sultan of Oman or Qatar. Statements from Secretary of State Rubio or SecDef Hegseth could also shift odds. Key signals will be confirmed back-channel meetings or prisoner exchanges.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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